Discussion in 'Options' started by mikeenday, Apr 29, 2011.
@ 25 cents.
I'm a buy & hope strategist.
Sorry to say, I think that's a losing lottery ticket.
Why buy AGQ when you can just buy puts in SLV directly?
Silver's had the huge run up with few pullbacks and I'm guessing there's tons of people salivating on the sidelines saying: "Man, it's just run up too fast, but first pullback, I'm in!" I just don't see a 50% drop in the next couple of weeks.
Also, those puts are so far OTM that even if silver does get a decent pullback, you'll only participate in a minuscule fraction of it.
I think within the next 1-3 months commodities are going to correct 25%+, I see silver falling over 40% back to the lower 30's sometime this summer, if you can time it you can make a ton of money.
Unless ability to assess direction is superior to other traders, it's not to be recommended.
If I could predict where silver is going I'd be a much richer man today. I guess most of us expect a pullback in the silver price after such a huge run up but when the pullback happens and by how much is another matter entirely.
Far OTM options are lottery tickets. You will most likely see the thing expire worthless but you have a small chance of snagging a ten bagger. It's not my style of trading.
I am looking myself at AGQ puts , but i am looking at Jan12 puts , any ideas ? which is the best way to participate in a silver drop for the long term ? AGQ puts , SLV puts , buying ZSL etfs ? looking at Jan13 puts as well , mmm ...
I got into some put spreads on SLV for 2012 at 40/30 and 2013 at 30/20
It wasn't that hard to sell the lower strikes as the spread was pretty tight for LEAPS.
Both of them cost me about 1.50, so I can max out at 8.50 gain, if SLV tanks.
Also I bought some ZSL in the IRAS, and selling front month OTM calls.
Trying to time the fall with front month puts is a little too hard... as I don't know when Silver will tank, but when it does it will fall hard.
If silver runs more I'll wait and pick up more puts, but I think it's been squeezed pretty hard at this point...
Edit - I just remembered why I didn't get into AGQ puts - spreads were WAY too wide and thinly traded.
sold @ 5
I'm going to have to stand corrected and say that was a pretty nice call.
Why does this thread have such a low rating? The OP just posted the largest percent gain trade on ET. $0.25 - $5.00 = 1900%
The previous ET record was 770% made by me:
1900% will be tough to beat.
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