Discussion in 'Options' started by ByLoSellHi, May 21, 2007.
I've been waiting for this moment for a while.
Celgene $65 July Puts.
Why Bro? After your call on VLO a long while ago your calls have me curious.
To be honest, I hate this stock because it's trading at an extraordinarily high and unjustifiable P/E ratio (352x on a normalized basis; 242x exlusionary), an equally rich P/S ratio, and I don't believe it will be able to meet the presumed eps growth, plus it just matched it's 52 week high.
I hope you dont trade on just hate
I've kind of figured out those answers after asking and just poking around. Good luck, I'll watch and see....might join you though...looks like it's tottering on historical highs and could follow history and recoup before sweeping to new highs.
No. Definitely not. I should have clarified and said that I love trying to dissect why a stock is receiving such a rich valuation as CELG is and not being able to find much, if any, objective rationale for it.
At this multiple, I can't live with myself if I don't risk capital shorting CELG - I've foregone or ignored such incidences in the past, and I've regretted taking action 90% of the time.
i made some money of ur vlo call, so heres something that i knw about CEGL, i dono if you took this into consideration...
ASCO, the grandaddy of all cancer conferences is happenin june1-5 and CEGL is to present data there, specifically:
"Additional data evaluating the clinical potential of Celgene products that we expect to be presented at this yearâs ASCO are as follows: updated results from Phase II studies of Revlimid monotherapy and relapsed refractory aggressive, indolent non-Hodgkins lymphoma, and new data from a Phase I-II study of Revlimid in combination with Rutuxan in relapsed refractory mantle cell lymphoma. Importantly, we believe this trial may represent the first clinical study to report the potential impact that Revlimid has on antibody defendant cellular cytotoxicity, ADCC, an important area of research for Celgene."
I have no clue what this means, but what i do know is there might be more risk than you think...
having said that, I will say that there are a lot of biotechs presenting data at this conference, and we might see a lot of action
Revlimid is a promising drug, no doubt.
But the market size for this drug isn't that vast - just 300,000 people worldwide - and probably a fraction of that in developed nations, where the medication is covered by insurance of governmental subsidies (maybe 30% of 300,000? - I wish I had a hard number).
I hope that Celgene succeeds for the sake of those affected by MDS, but is this Revlimid's target market large enough for it to be a true profit center?
And you think that this will correct itself in the next few weeks? Seems like you haven't given yourself enough time to be right ... <shrug>
dont you think we'll see 76 in July ?
Not my TA, but for what its worth -
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