Conventional wisdom states something to the effect of, "It's impossible to pick the exact bottoms of the market." While I agree it is difficult, I couldn't disagree more that it's impossible. Still in the last one. That one was a gift.
In my own trading, what I have found out is that you CAN pick bottoms and tops, but you are only going to be correct about 30% of the time. So, instead of picking tops and bottoms, you are going to have a MUCH better chance for a profitable trade by going along with the trend, and expecting it to continue. Just my two centavos.
I hear ya Div Arb, different strokes for different folks. I just do what works for me and I have a much harder time picking tops than I do bottoms. I can just smell out the fear at bottoms but it's hard to judge the exictement/greed at tops.
I was pretty close to this last bottom but I won't take a trigger this late in the day. Too easy to get smoked if it don't work....
is this discretionary or automated? I've been trying to figure out your strat PFool, no luck yet (well, nothing wtih a decent avg gain per trade/tradable with slppage + comm). But your posts sometimes give me ideas to backtest so I'l keep trying!!
Nice Chart, I assume that the blue dots don't repaint or move, correct? In my methodology, all I trade is "turns/reversals". I can do momentum plays if I get bored, but I'd rather do reversals