Agree...I think it trades even lower.....all the new money hoping for 26,500+ isn't coming anytime soon...the push and pull with the extreme volatility is going to have most wanting out of this market... complacency is gone for now.....won't be back for a long time...
Seems EOD technical traders are just guessing here given limited price information. However, today was a successful test of a low from a couple days ago in the ES. Seems to be a range taking shape on an hourly and daily chart. I am certainly just guessing here and will pass.
Emerging markets are more sensitive to US dollar cost and have retraced , to support, all of the recent ignored surge in US rates. EDC got juice for the EOD punter here and a level to lean on. No one has mentioned emerging markets here where in 2013 you would have thought a 1998 type currency crisis, capital flight, shit storm would occur due to taper. Reality was deflation and lower US rates ruled in 2014. Not this time though....inflaton is likely and fed does not seem so "dovey" to equities and this administrations fiscal policies. This is my theme and look mostly for new major inputs.
Looking at nq daily, if I was to trade this chart pattern on the 1 min, these 2 hammer bars are classic bull traps that occur in high volatility. Look for them to either fail immediately or over a period of 3 days. So more down move to go
Looks to me like we are bottoming in both Gold, NQ (or the individual stocks overal for that matter) and Euro on the 4H charts. Too much correlcation to be an incident. The stock market correction was just that: a correction of a few procents, nothing more. So gold should resume it's longer trend upwards. I am a buyer on monday of gold, dgxj (junior gold miners index etf; I am extremely bullish on gold for the longer term), Alibaba and IBM. All for the longer term. Also will be buying RSX since that one is going to profit of the stronger economic revival since it's very commodity related and PE wise or CAPE ratio wise looks still cheap. In BTC the bottom is not in: I expect two or three more weeks of down. But we are getting near ...
A test of the 40 month moving average (monthly candle time frame), still would not indicate a Bear Market unless the SPX has a monthly closing candle below the 40mma. In the decades that I have been using this chart to move 401k's out of stock indexes when there's a monthly close below the 40mma, and back into stock indexes when the index price has a monthly close back above the 40mma, it hasn't been wrong yet.
Jeff, very interesting, thanks for posting that! Never heard of a 40 month moving average - is that a common tool or just just kinda found that out on your own? Just curious. Thanks!
Its interesting how all you guys are technicians, but have fundamental disagreements about the market direction. I guess that just proves its more of an art than a science!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Long before I started trading options, I was just a normal family guy with a job and a 401k. I always had a concern about why my 401k was up and down. An older friend of mine subscribed to a monthly publication (started in 1981) called Option Advisor by Bernie Schaeffer. One day I expressed concern to my older friend about my declining 401k, so he started giving me his older paper copies of his monthly publication. He told me to ignore the option trades in the newsletter (because in the 1980's I didn't even know what options were), but instead just read the part about the general market outlook, market timing and the occassional chart inside. The author used the 40 month moving average to denote the difference between the bull and the bear. It seemed reasonable, so I started following it and have ever since.