Bottom fishing...Amazon

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Cabin111, Nov 1, 2022.

  1. here is what separate traders vs investor....boys from men...i shorted amzn today 11/2/22...let see how this thread will age in a couple of months.
     
    #11     Nov 2, 2022
    wastelands and murray t turtle like this.
  2. actually i made $60 doing door dash/grub hub for one hour of work and $216 trading the stonk market yesterday 11/1/22. how much did you made yesterday?

    did you see my screenshot of my amzn trade today? maybe it was in the other thread. but i post it here for you to see. hurry, i left some table scraps for you.
     
    #12     Nov 2, 2022
  3. %%
    Sounds like his wife is right\wait;
    AMZN=downtrending below 200dma\50day moving average\. And still is today + last close.
    QQQ in bear market all year, also \50dma\200dma. R
    Regardless of unions\ bear market.
    XLE sector is nicely uptrending/ 200dma/50 dma.
     
    #13     Nov 2, 2022
  4. Cabin111

    Cabin111

    What makes Amazon a Buffett company?
    Warren Buffett has given many, many sage pieces of advice over the years about how to invest wisely. There is no magic formula that he uses to buy stocks or acquire companies for his holding company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A 0.21%) (BRK.B 0.16%), but we can get a picture of what he thinks are key features of an investment-worthy candidate.

    One of those features is its moat. A moat is a competitive advantage, or basically anything about the business that allows it to stand out from its competitors and protect its business. He qualifies that with an extra detail: "Long-term competitive advantage in a stable industry is what we seek in a business."

    With a whopping 38% of all e-commerce sales, a number that has mostly held steady over the past few years despite an onslaught of new companies with an e-commerce presence, Amazon dominates e-commerce. Its more than 200 million Prime members, who pay $139 annually, rely on it for a massive amount of needs, and other companies that have tried to challenge it have so far come nowhere near real competition. Walmart, for example, has launched its own annual service and makes up 6.3% of the e-commerce market share. Buffett, or likely one of his investment managers, bought Amazon shares in 2019. Since the "stable business" is part of the equation, Buffett may not have considered Amazon a buy before e-commerce proved its business value.

    Amazon continued to plow investments into the customer experience in the third quarter, and while it may struggle in the coming months, these investments are what help its moat stay wide. As CFO Brian Olsavsky put it on the third-quarter conference call, "We remain heads-down focused on driving a fantastic customer experience, and we believe putting customers first is the only reliable way to create lasting value for shareholders."

    But there's more.

    This is what Buffett says about expanding a business:

    There's no rule that you have to invest money where you've earned it. Indeed, it's often a mistake to do so. Truly great businesses, earning huge returns on tangible assets, can't, for any extended period, reinvest a large portion of their earnings internally at high rates of return.

    Amazon follows this model very closely. It uses its huge e-commerce business to fund other businesses, which are often more profitable than its core business. AWS is the most obvious example. AWS has been providing most of the company's operating income for a while.

    The company has also made many whole acquisitions, such as the pending purchase of iRobot. Some of these acquisitions are integrated into the Amazon platform, such as MGM studios, whose film library has been added to the Prime library. iRobot is an example of a whole company Amazon will leave to run on its own.

    Can Amazon keep growing?
    Buffett invests in companies that he believes offer high potential for long-term gains. He has said that his favorite holding period is "forever." Amazon's moat and ability to expand into new areas can give investors confidence that it has plans to grow for the foreseeable future. Amazon stock is down 44% this year, and investors can see the drop as an opportunity to buy shares.

    Things I see (Cabin111)...They continue to build out fulfillment centers (one opens this week in my home town). Growth of AWS and Amazon Prime. Growth of Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods in well thought out locations.

    They do not look like a K-mart or Sears to me. I could be wrong. Different business plan/model. If we hit a major recession, they will close (consolidate) fulfillment centers for awhile...Reduce people and fleet trucks while they switch over to electric. Expand Whole Foods when sites and labor is cheap (recession).

    Yes, they are burning through money...But it's with expansion. Nothing wrong with that.

    Once they become a mature company (industry leader...Microsoft/Walmart), sit back and wait for solid quarters.

    For investors...Find your good entry point. Just don't be late to the party.
     
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2022
    #14     Nov 2, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    $700 billion of market cap down the toilet does not says to me ... hmm let me buy some.
     
    #15     Nov 2, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  6. %%
    I bought many books from them/good price + i [still ] enjoy thier little ''look inside'' book reads.
    But i also did home+ business improvement for 33+ years+ almost always a mistake for husband or wife to do something when one disagrees.
    BUT, buying in a downtrending bear\AMZN\QQQ;
    say you do that for 3 years??? That happened in bear market of 2000, 2001, 20002 bear???
    WHOLE Foods has a good rep\ but also ''spend your whole paycheck there\LOL'':D:D
     
    #16     Nov 2, 2022
  7. Cabin111

    Cabin111

    So...Who is selling and who is buying at these prices??
     
    #17     Nov 2, 2022
  8. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Smart and dumb money. :)

    You have to ask, who was buying and who was selling when price was going higher and higher?

    Then flip the script around.
     
    #18     Nov 2, 2022
  9. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Here is a stat comparison that IMO is very telling:-

    AMZN profit margin 2.26%
    ...operating margin 2.58%

    WMT profit margin 2.36%
    ...operating margin 4.06%

    Not just that WMT is slightly higher but that WMT does it without a Cloud Computing money-making machine like AWS.
     
    #19     Nov 2, 2022
    murray t turtle and Clubber Lang like this.
  10. This article is laughable to me because the person obviously has no clue what AWS even is. A non-technical person that has never logged into AWS can't understand how huge it is. Basically, a complete violation of Munger and Buffet's way of thinking of investing in your circle of competence.

    The biggest variable right now is if business will decide to save money by keeping things on prem instead of the completing moves to the cloud. It is not even obvious that some companies will not revert to on prem to save money.

    Amazon's retail business is as saturated as any business that has ever existed and was practically designed around just in time supply chains , 2% target inflation and cheap gasoline. To believe the retail business can just get things in order easily is utterly delusional.



     
    #20     Nov 2, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.