Supply/Demand lines and trendlines and trend channels all have the same purpose: to inform you of the balance between supply and demand while providing clues as to future direction. Don't get so entangled in lines that you forget this. If it all becomes confusing, just get rid of them and look at price. Naked. Generally speaking, you are correct that an oversold condition would prompt a bullish expectation ("bias" is a little strong). And that turned out to be the case this morning. However, since price never made it to the top of the channel you've drawn, there was always the possibility of a trend change, either sideways or a reversal. And sideways is what you eventually got. But be careful not to micromanage. You can go nuts with ever tinier channels until you are reduced to complete inaction. Remember that the LOLR is still up. This is not to say that you blindly go long only, much less that you never take a short opportunity. But back off from the trees periodically, either by clicking into a larger bar interval or by zooming out. Keep the big picture in mind by taking a minute to look at the weekly chart again, then the daily, then the hourly. Then look at what's been going on overnight using the 15m or whatever. This will give you a sense of what the overall trend is as well as your place in it. Then you'll have a better idea what to do as you get closer to the NY open (unless you enter before that). And for Christ's sake don't trade while you've got the flu. Edit: I just checked the charts again to see what price had been up to since the NY close, and the LOLR isn't up anymore, at least for now. We'll see what the situation is in the morning. Perhaps buyers will pull it out after all.
Looks like they didn't. Even though we hit my "target" of 30, they just couldn't make a higher high, even though they came within just a few ticks. The upper limit of the channel is at 80, but this is a double top, and it has to be played that way. The line was broken yesterday evening, retracement just before midnight, then the decline. We may recover at the NY open, but that's unknowable. Whatever "bias" one may have is not pertinent. Price is falling. Now. As to what it will be doing in four hours . . .
bmw I like to think its because of superior instruction of sound principles and a pretty good support staff
lesson for today "expectations" after breaking the DL on the 60 min chart last night . and the DT on the daily chart I was expecting a down day. I took a short before the open and managed the trade ok but I was surprised price didn't break the LSL at 3596. At the open price traded straight up taking me by surprise, a RET at 9:34 and I went long, In hindsight (this happened fairly quick) after such a quick rise I should have waited for a more substantial pullback but I scratched the trade next bar. While I was thinking about what happened price pulled back gave a entry at 9:37 and another at 9:43 and proceeded to trade up to 3622. which I missed This scenario bothered me for a few reasons , because of my expectations instead of following my trading plan I was reacting to the market. this is something I'm going to have to be more aware of, its important to do preparation and plan for the day but don't lock onto any one thing. the rest of my day is on chart 2 . as usual comments, suggestions welcome
some observations daily chart price barely slowed down at the LSH, it did retrace then traded higher, with no visible R I would expect higher prices 4 hr chart since the lows of 2-5 price has moved steadily upward, hesitating just below the 3635 high which turned out to a buying oppt. price then trades higher making a HH 60 min poking the DL still above the LSH I would be taking all long entries price trading below 3638 low would lead me to rethink this, as would breaking the DL
This is from post #11 in my journal , I can feel myself sliding back into the "start the line here stop it here" routine. This isn't working , so I am going to go back to the VERY beginning. Rereading the HOW TO DO IT thread for the 2nd time, this time however I will do it step by step. Also rereading "THE TRADING JOURNAL " thread, and again , I will take this step by step and not gloss over some of the less interesting information. Having been around as long as I have may be a blessing and a curse. A blessing because I am starting to grasp some concepts that I didn't see before, and having read over so many of the threads an awareness is starting to germinate. A curse because it does feel somewhat humbling to be at this stage and have so little success. I am not sure why I feel so driven to succeed at this but I will do whatever it takes to get there. I apologize for rambling on, but if my posts are less frequent in the near future its only temporary until I feel I have something of value to share.
Trade review can be an excellent means of spotlighting errors as long it doesn't degenerate into a lot of CWS. But you should do it now while yesterday is still reasonably fresh, though if it's too late, it's too late. If it is, keep it in mind for next time.
follow up to this mornings post #38, while rereading what I wrote this morning I realized I need to write more clearly and with more detail. while I saw price in a TR I didn't write anything about it, I will try try do better in the future. Price did respect the upper and lower limits of the range if only once, pre open price traded up to 3675 where it was rejected and fell to 3656.75 just above the 6:00 am lows where buyers pushed it all the way to 3681 before it settled into a TR. S/R has presented some problems for me in the past and this was annoying because I always thought I found good levels , the markets seemed to respect them, at least for a while. Db stressed trading price (if I understood him correctly), trend trumps S/R. I have a couple of examples in todays trading . Still in the process of writing out how I want to proceed with this journal I had thought I had it all figured out but the more I write the more questions come up. I am getting closer.