Its been a long week , however I think I've turned a corner as far as my mental approach is concerned. I will address this later, here's todays chart.
Some possible outcomes today Edit the LL on the daily TC should be 3560-70 and we are there now. sorry for any confusion
It seemed as I have tried to refine my plan , all I was doing was putting stricter rules in place. The more rules (or the order in which they happened) the more removed I was from price. The best I ever followed price was when I kept things simple, is there a HH? a LL? chop?. When I tried to Implement a scratching process, that led to reentering . I read somewhere if the market isn't doing what you expected it to then get out. Do I need to define that, to write that down so specifically that there is no wiggle room at all? I lost touch with following PA. I think I'm making this harder than it has to be , I am trying to make exits perfect and in doing so I lost sight of the forest for the trees. A written plan is a necessary, a tested written plan is a necessity, but it doesn't have to be complicated, unfortunately that is what I do well. Db has been kind enough to make available a TP that works, There is a difference between making a plan fit your personality (risk tolerance) and trying to rewrite a plan to make it better. So one more time its back to the beginning. These trips back to square one don't depress me like they used to. I have learned a great deal in the last few months and it seems I am able to learn from my mistakes quicker. Good trading
Could be the blind leading the blind! LOL What my eye is although picking up more and more is where the mean falls. If price spends a good amount of time at where the mean falls given the way the upper and lower channel lines are drawn, I feel as if the channel is legitimate. Furthermore, I think Db also said once that price tends to move around the mean in equal amounts, and I see this here too. When price goes a bit one way above the channel, it goes the same amount in the opposite direction. When it ventures out further, it also does so in equal amounts to the other side. There is a certain kind of symmetry that I sometimes see to means. It is I think the mean that is more important than the extremes, so when we draw in the initial channel line and then do a parallel to the opposite side, if the mean does in fact capture where much of price trades then I think the channel is drawn well. I hope I'm not out to lunch on this.
I posted something about this to your journal. Yes, there is a mean to any channel, and there clearly are more trades in the "center" of the tentative channel that you drew. But the mean is more a zone than a line, and it's 40pts wide. This provides no practical value. The supply line, though, is and was perfectly tradeable.