I made a stupid mistake today: I shorted bonds at 121'285. It is refusing to move down so I can get out. I did the trade just for a quick profit, but the damn thing moved straight up immediately after I made my trade. By the time I prepared the stop loss/take profit orders, it was at 122'05. When will this thing go down if any? Should I take my loss, and move on? If the US credit situation were that bad, how come they are buying the bonds?
I am angry at it now, so I have two views. The logical one, and the angry one. I will leave the angry one for later. The logical one is that G8/G20 talked about austerity, which implies less credit from government. However I do not believe them, and I thought at the least the gap will close. In addition, I read that fancy report on your thread which says market up, so I determined that risk appetite will go up and bonds would "surely" close the gap. So I got sticked!
When chinese came with their bluff last week, I did a quick analysis at the time, and it said that TLT sellers were at 99.80 area. I wonder if it is still valid.
We may backtrack to the 121280 zone tonight. The big boys will keep us elevated for the next day or 2 days until there is good reason to crack 3%, Bad consumer confidence or ADP may do it.
Thanks for all the info. That number is right when I got sucked! Since you seem to be an expert in bonds, could you help on this: I noticed that they have influenced currencies today. EUR/USD was rising, and it turned down. Stocks are green now, and they also seem to have moved down earlier today with bonds heading up. Who is the leader? Any relationships among things that are reliable?