http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^TNX&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= I'm waiting for a sharp countertrend rally to get short, the above link is the long term chart, it pretty much shows the compression and technical upside breakout. Over the years the 10 year has a habit of retracing on a countertrend sharply shaking off positions. It might be months before we see 4.5% or lower, but if the stock market stays depressed, it will hit consumer confidence. And everything will snowball, the higher the rates move up a braking effect on the economy is placed. So eventually you will see a sharp countertrend rally, as evidence of it multiple times over the years in the past. I can wait months to get short, but as soon as the world shows signs that the equity market deflation starts effecting it. I will get long.
yield escape from 5.3% the previous chart shows the trendline off the peaks from the other fear cycles in bonds. pretty characteristic.
typical twerp analysis from the CNBC crowd that has never seen a 1973 to 1982 bond bear....... 30 to 50 tick weekly down drafts for months seems impossible???? yea right........
world economic cycle seems to be turning an oil tankers turn towards stagnant growth. 4.0% targeted on the 10 year.
my gut is going crazy, it might be a good contrary indicator, probability is increasing we see 4% on the 10 year.