bond market seems heavy, it seems its harder for it to rally then selloff. Implies a large dealer is unloading with the increased liquidity present during these times. PIMCO might be the culprit. Rates are upward bias longterm cycle.
the fear in the marketplace already factored in. Inflation news should drive the market today. Technically the chart does look good on the ten year for further upside gains. inflation news should be tame. so bonds may fall back and test yesterdays gains first. Equities will rally.
With the economy giving hints of turning around, and interspersed strong economic data is fueling short positions. the confounding trade will be a bond market that rallys in the face of strong economic data. NFP should come in strong. With increased liquidity rout, the bonds will spike down on the initial news then a short covering reversal will occur hitting the stops off the initial open. the long term players have the FED behind them in that the FED will utlimately succeed in slowing the economy down. liquidity will be drained. But evidence of it wont surface fast enough for the shorts to profit from it.
Probably right, the rumors in the Bond Pit are already lowering the bar below the consensus Payrolls data, so that they can sell on any number above the artificial low expectations ( very clever manipulation)- and with the refunding approaching, the dealers will start to enter steepeners after the Payroll Report in order to underwrite next week's supply-your scenario will play out, imho