Bonds and ES

Discussion in 'Trading' started by accutrader, Mar 11, 2009.

  1. Most of the time, the S&P futures, symbol ES, and the 30 year bond futures, symbol ZB, move in opposite directions. However, there are times, such as this afternoon, when both ES and ZB move in the same direction.

    I would appreciate it if anyone who trades bond futures, on an intraday basis, would let me know if they watch ES and what use, if any, they make of it.
  2. it's just as you said, generally they move in opposite directions, but sometimes they don't. i simply watch it to see if there is building pressure one way or the other, and if they start moving the same questions start asking myself if i can think of a good reason for it, if not the bond market is generally right. bonds are always smarter than stocks
  3. 1) Be careful when you say "that".
    2) The move in bonds probably had more to do with the 10-year note auction and an expectation of a bullish jobless claims and retail sales report tomorrow.
    3) With auctions, the primary dealers tend to "muscle" the market up and down more in order to make money on hedges and the new securities, especially right after the bid-window closes.
    4) The bond should be "jumpy" tomorrow because of the news releases and its auction. We'll see. :cool:
  4. Besides, you're talking about ZB, a long-dated bond future (it's more like 15y, as Nov24 is the CTD), whose movements are not as correlated to the stock mkt as the short-dated futures are. Finally, there were days last year when liquidation would move stocks and bonds the same way, so you have to be aware of days like that.