Bonds: All Time Low Yields!

TheCaracal · Jun 11, 2003

Quote from Point Man:

Quote from The Answer:

05-14-03 08:57 PM
Re: BONDS FEEL LUCKY PUNK

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Quote from Point Man:

The Answer,

My friend and colleague did a case study of the 1984 Bond trade that I speak of here. The formation that we have right now, is the same chart formation we had 19 years ago in the Bond Market. In 1984, we first had a false breakout to the upside followed by a 6 point dump. In February/March 2003, the high of the breakout from a symmetrical triangle was 11526. On April 7, 2003 the low of the break in the June Bond was 109.25 (6 points). Everyone and their brother was bearish. Reviewing the case study of 1984 and being bullish was a beautiful thing. Myself and my mate were in our own camp. The objective for this move is a 135-136 handle. The last 7-10 points will come fast and hard. I would look to take profits at the 123-124 level. Look to buy back with both hands a 38.2%-50% correction from the 10925 lows to the high of this move, hopefully 12320. They laughed at me 19 years ago. Now the players listen to a 47 year old man. The T-Bond is a great trade dominated by the computer about 4 to 1 computer to pit. You can actually buy the lows or sell the highs of moves on the computer and not have to give up a tick to get in and a tick to get out to the bloody locals. Good luck. Keep the faith. IF YOU ARE NOT LONG YOU ARE WRONG.
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Thank you for the missive and Great Call!

The June T-Bond traded 12314 today June 11, 2003. Look for 145-150 by the Spring of 2004. You heard it here first.
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My brother-in-law at UBS/PW has a client that has been long 30Y since 1981!

The old geezer is loaded and making SALES!
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spreadem · Jun 12, 2003

The June T-Bond traded 12314 today June 11, 2003. Look for 145-150 by the Spring of 2004. You heard it here first.

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I had been getting short and either making a little or getting stopped out. Net positive a little bit.

A nice multiweek pullback would be needed to get me as a buyer.

Point Man · Jun 12, 2003

Quote from spreadem:

I had been getting short and either making a little or getting stopped out. Net positive a little bit.

A nice multiweek pullback would be needed to get me as a buyer.
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I liked them up to this level, but am anticipating a summer to correct/consolidate possibly back to the old highs 116-117.

rawman74 · Jun 21, 2003

http://www.maoxian.com/

spreadem · Jun 23, 2003

Looking for the bonds to firm up this week for a possible resumption of the uptrend.

Point Man · Jun 23, 2003

Quote from spreadem:

Looking for the bonds to firm up this week for a possible resumption of the uptrend.
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Gap from 12010-12014 we are in a 3 month correction/consolidation phase buy weakness sell strength

Speakingout · Jun 24, 2003

Bond Yeilds are so low its crazy to think that the Fed has the "balls" to push down interest rates again. Companies are not borrowing plain and simple they just dont need the money because business opportunites are low. Greenspan is creating another Japanese economic disaster here in the U.S. Its a shame that he has not learned from their example.

Point Man · Jun 29, 2003

It is time for a bounce. Possible H & S Top. All true H & S have a return to the neckline. Time will tell. Did the shorts cover on Friday or do you run this BIG winner looking for the HOME RUN down to 113 objective? Where's the shorts stop if the market bounces?