Bond Trader 2009

Discussion in 'Journals' started by johnpinochet, Jun 30, 2009.

  1. Out at 117 210. Ouch. A little too much strength. I did try to get out with a tick profit but wasn't filled.
     
    #81     Jul 22, 2009
  2. 1111 EST

    Whew! I really had to fight for today. I'm done. The update is net 212 USD. Trading small size because of Bernanke. First trade was +60 or so. Got up to +160 or so, then had a setback, finally with two trades ended at +212.

    You have to know when you are off and stop. Also, ever since Bernanke's 5 point plus move in the 10 year, I've been very nervous about any speech. Hence the 1 - 2 lot trades. It has been awhile since I've don't 6 lots, let alone 8 - 12.
     
    #82     Jul 22, 2009
  3. I don't know that I would have taken this trade so late in the day but it does demonstrate the power of my posted levels.
     
    #83     Jul 22, 2009
  4. Selling at 117 180 was a really bad trade for two reasons. If you look, earlier in the chart, we kissed 117 175 and came back for my 3 tick net profit target. My order wasn't filled. Then we spiked up through 117 180.

    I should have known that the "for first approach only" had already occurred even if off by 1/2 tick.
     
    #84     Jul 22, 2009
  5. Here is what I mean. When I post those levels, it is for a first approach only. Look at the approach just prior to my fill at 117 180.

    The trade was over at that point.
     
    #85     Jul 22, 2009
  6. Final observation:

    The two follow on trades were executed in a text-book fashion. You have to continue and trade what you see and not be gun-shy after a mistake.

    The only possible criticism is that I could have milked the two follow on trades for a little bit more. I really like the short entry at 117 205 (previously mentioned POC), and the exit on half at 117 180 which was 1/2 tick off of the low print. Text-book perfect.

    Also, on that 1 min chart, price did nothing for a series of 5 bars after that. That is an eternity on a 1 min chart. How did I know to exit 1/2 tick from the low print? It is all about S/R and a little help from my WGSR.
     
    #86     Jul 22, 2009
  7. I trade the 30 year bond, symbol ZB. I would appreciate it if you would give us your comments as to why you have decided to trade the 10 year bond.
     
    #87     Jul 22, 2009
  8. I for 1 prefer the 10 year because it has more volume and respects s&r a little better (at least the first time touched).

    The 30 year moves are much more exaggerated.
     
    #88     Jul 22, 2009
  9. Thank you for your reply, Enoch. I understand your comment regarding s&r. However, is it not a good thing that the 30 year moves are more exaggerated? Do we not want bigger moves?
     
    #89     Jul 22, 2009
  10. Most want bigger moves, and while I don't mind them if they are predictable, I am a bricklayer and I prefer to take the same trade day in and day out -- between ranges.

    I always seem to lose money on breakouts and strong trending days. I always make money when price just bounces from support to resistance and back.

    So for my style, ZN works better.
     
    #90     Jul 22, 2009