Bond Trader 2009

Discussion in 'Journals' started by johnpinochet, Jun 30, 2009.

  1. Greetings!

    I can make no promises that this journal will last longer than any of the others I have written. When it becomes a chore or interferes with my trading I will stop.

    This time around, rather than posting my trades real-time and keeping a real-time flow of my thoughts going, I'm probably going to do occasional commentary instead. Posts will probably be sporadic.

    Think of it as random thoughts.

    So for example, today, I wanted to comment that there is no shame in recognizing the ideal way to trade a first half of the trading day, maximizing your return and quitting for the day. Yes, I said quitting.

    Here is the deal, by 0934 I was up approximately 1000 USD. I felt that we probably had further downside (we did but only about 4 more ticks in the ZN) AND I wanted to short again at approximately 116 01. My neural net went long at 0949, but my standard min chart and volume bar charts were not confirming. I remained flat.

    Point 2 was looking better for a long, but in this case, an argument could be made for either a long or a short, i.e. uncertainty. I remained flat. The trip down to 115 245 re-emphasized the weakness for me and I made a mental note that if we got back to 116 01 I would at least attempt a single short there.

    At point 3 I was set to go short, then I took a step back and looked closely at my charts. I looked at my net profit for the day. I looked at my trades thus far for the morning. At this point I realized that a quick short here on surprising strength from the 115 245 low was simply NOT worth the risk. If anything, I should be going long at 116 01. Yes, even after a 8 - 9 tick rise, I should be going long. At this point I say "V" day to myself and stop trading.

    I don't always trade this way and I don't advocate doing it all of the time. The point to take away from this is that mentally it is very easy to become blinded by your convictions on how a day will progress. There is no shame in recognizing your strengths and exiting prior to your weakness arriving. Trading for me is no different than any highly demanding mental or physical activity. I'm fortunate in that I can work a full time 9 - 5 job and trade the CBOT and CME markets late at night for me. This means I need to always keep in mind that the clock is ticking and my peak performance abilities are at their best for a small window of time.
  2. 1004 EST

    I'm looking to make my trade of the day at approximately 1130 EST. I expect some significant price activity there. The other times are 1030 EST and 1300 EST.

    At this time, as far as a trade right now, I would probably simply buy on a pull back. With so many 1000 EST reports out it would have been foolish to be in.

    In conclusion, I'm looking for trades on or around the above three times. I think the best time is 1130 but that is just a guess. Right this minute I would buy on a pull back to 115 31 to 116 02.
  3. 1031 EST

    Obviously chopped around a bit there.

    Right at this moment in time it looks like we will test the lows.
  4. 1041 EST

    I have a WGSR at 115 16 as a first target, if we can continue. The 10 year has been very fickle about continued moves.
  5. 0701 hrs

    As I said, I'll be sporadic in posting. I just completed a trade that I consider text-book, picture perfect. The only thing better than this is a 16 to 32 tick net trade with no heat. The beauty of this trade is that it occurs, day after day, multiple times throughout the day. How did I know? Support and resistance. This trade was purely a support and resistance trade.
  6. I'll admit to one error with the above trade. I should have immediately reversed.

    Here's why. As soon as my entry hit, I knew that the market would be positive to return to my short entry within a few 5 minute bars. I knew this for many reasons that I can't elaborate on, but here are a few common sense reasons why I could have gone long at my short exit:

    Obvious, clear cut support.
    We are pre-market open.
    We are pre 0830 EST market moving reports.
  7. 0720 EST

    Brief wave analysis for the ZN for 16 July 2009.

    This is based on the 60 min chart:

    It looks like we made a significant multi hour bottom yesterday. I'm looking at this first wave to hit a target of 117 01 to 117 08. This assumes yesterday's low holds. If not disregard. Remember we have possible market moving reports today. Anything could happen.

    Part of the above analysis is based on rather serious WG activity yesteday.

    I have no trades on at the moment as it is bedtime for the babies and I won't be able to trade again until after 0830 EST.

    As always keep in mind that I shoot for 3 - 4 ticks on my first trade unit and I exit at various targets on the remaining units depending on price behaviour.
  8. 0730 EST

    My 15 min chart confirms the above 60 min analysis. I have it also starting a wave 1 move to the upside. 0830 reports can change this in a fraction of a second.
  9. 0924 EST

    After some back and forth, I think that 117 160 is a possible upper target for today. We may get a chance to buy again in the 116 290 range.
  10. Important time coming up at 0940 EST and then another one at 1000 EST.
    #10     Jul 16, 2009