Thursday 20 Mar 2008, 0635 CST SKF In examining my daily charts it appears to me that SKF may be a buy today. It isn't 100% a buy signal. It is more of a buy a cycle bottom pattern. I'll be watching the 5 minute today for a buy entry to add to my existing amount. My observations are tentative. Since December 2007, every time it has approached a certain "level" I keep track of, it has rebounded. I'm considering this extra bit in my analysis. DRYS DRYS remains down. I won't even look at it until it consolidates and returns to within the channel. FXI FXI is completely below my lower dynamic Peak / Valley channel as well. GLD GLD signaled a major sell on 18 Mar 2008 as well as the open of 19 Mar 2008. I'm waiting for 91.67 followed by 88.88. 30 Year Yield Remains below my lower dynamic Peak / Valley channel. This of course means that the ZB has been in a strong buy mode for several days now. I don't quite understand the heavy short mentality of some of the other bond threads, but each to their own. The ZB must be traded cautiously with an eye towards rapid change. ZB Bullish bias, but as I mentioned, don't be married to one side only. Dow 30 Dow remains above my 50% median line so even though yesterday was a very negative day, it is still technically in my bullish bias zone, but just barely. I have a NN stochasitc buy and an NN cycle sell. I would just day trade the Dow either way depending on the 1 - 5 min charts and forget about the daily. I think we will head down further, but that is more because of my take on SKF rather than a strong feeling about the Dow.
Very Important Numbers for the ZB 121 00 120 26 120 22 120 08 By the way, I started writing my previous post right around 0620. The Jun ZB was just beginning to approach a number I thought important. I even considered a buy there, but decided against it as I didn't have time to manage the trade. In any event, that number is 119 28. Keep an eye on it, as well as the other numbers from previous posts if we happen to go down that way today. If you can figure out why I chose all of the numbers mentioned in this post today, you no longer need to read this journal.
The breach of the 120 16 level on the 0756 1 min bar was key. I was typing the previous message when price was kissing 120 14.
Not that it matters now, but 120 12 has been a significant number on my hourly chart. The 4 mentioned previously were derived from a shorter time frame. I'm making an educated guess that 120 12 is more important than 120 08 and that a sustained move below 120 12 would lead to a net 6 - 8 tick short. Be careful though, so far I'm still biased to the long side.
I've been watching SKF on the side as a secondary interest today. The 5 minute looks terrible. 115 even is the bottom of my Peak / Valley channel. If it can't hold that, then I will continue to wait, probably until next week sometime.