Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by johnpinochet, Feb 29, 2008.

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  1. John, for intraday scenario, which is your idea?

    Long if it holds 116-16 and short when/how...?

    :confused: :eek:
    #21     Mar 12, 2008
  2. I don't know if anyone is following but right around 0400 hrs CST we bounced right off of 116 30. At least according to my IB print. We got up to 117 12.
    #22     Mar 12, 2008
  3. Yes....
    #23     Mar 12, 2008
  4. Bernard111,

    Sorry for the delay. I guess it doesn't matter at the moment

    I was very anxious to buy at 0400 hrs when I saw the strength, but I knew I wouldn't be able to manage the trade due to time commitments, so I decided not to trade. We had another chance at 0500.

    With the first post for today, I had 117 26 as another price of significance but I was going to post it later. We are at this price now. Now might be a good short at 0815 hrs CST, but do not risk much more than 118 00. Double 00's are always dangerous.
    #24     Mar 12, 2008
  5. When I'm on a roll, I'm on a roll. Note the time I mentioned.

    So, let's discuss the chart briefly. Nothing I present here is new. Everything has been discussed to death in Journal 1, and 2.

    A: I mentioned that 117 26 at 0815 hrs might be a good time to short. We went down to 117 18. That is a 4 - 6 tick net profit trade per contract.

    B: We approach 117 26 for a second time. As I've stated on many occasions, repeating your trade here is a good idea. Just be aware that you might be changing direction. This trade ends up being either a break even or a 1 tick net profit.

    C: We approach 117 26 for the third time after the slight failure at point B. Once again, I've mentioned this many times. Third time approaches to a point of resistance, in my experience, will probably continue through that resistance. In other words, you don't want to press your luck and short again. Look at the volume bars beginning at 0930 hrs CST. A buy anywhere between 117 24 - 117 27 is in order. This is a minimum 7 tick net profit trade.
    #25     Mar 12, 2008
  6. Chart.
    #26     Mar 12, 2008
  7. By 1000 hrs CST you knew that even though there was a decent argument for a down bias into the day, price behaviour was telling you that you should be long from then on, with the possible exception of looking to short at one of two important levels 118 26 and 119 00. Check out point D on the chart.

    After going long at point C, or even at the 1000 hrs dip, you would know that your target is 118 26. I knew that this was a target by just glancing at the past several day's activity. You could press your luck and short there as well, which would have given you a minimum of 6 ticks, or better yet, you could have bought again on the dip around 1230 or so, knowing that 119 00 was a potential target.
    #27     Mar 13, 2008
  8. Thursday 13 Mar 2008 0726 hrs

    ZB bias is neutral to long. My goal today is probably to trade a range. There was a lot of money to be made between 2300 CST yesterday and 0100 hrs today. Also between 0400 hrs and now. No levels to publish. Need to keep this short.

    DRYS is falling in the toilet. Stay away. 50 is my next target.

    SRS is showing signs of perking up. Premature at this time.

    RIO is looking better. Still a bit earlier to get in again though.

    Gold continues to plug away. I think 100 in GLD is a given.

    SPY and DIA
    SPY and DIA appear to have given false buy signals. I wouldn't trust anything on the buy side yet. Both are beneath my 50% median line of my dynamic Peak/Valley channels, and of particular note BOTH are BELOW the Valley channel. Think of it as price being completely outside of the lowest Bollinger Band, or Keltner.

    30 year yield.
    It looks like my assessment on a buy was premature. The 30 year yield closed below my 50% median line and the close is resting right on the bottom Valley channel. Premature to make a projection at this point. I cancel my long term take and will stick to day trading the ZB, waiting for this chart to clear up for a longer term prediction.
    #28     Mar 13, 2008
  9. Interesting behaviour around my published levels isn't it? Lot's of room for any type of trader today.
    #29     Mar 13, 2008
  10. Look back at my recap post for 12 Mar 2008. I believe the chart is named accordingly.

    Look at the levels published in that chart. Those levels took great care of you on 12 - 14 March 2008.

    Here is a 15 min for today.
    #30     Mar 14, 2008
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