Bond Trader 2008 (Swing Trading Bond futures, Stocks, and ETF's)

Discussion in 'ETFs' started by johnpinochet, Feb 29, 2008.

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  1. For me day trade now means to find 1 or 2 trades a day at most when I am able to day trade. I don't day trade every day. The bulk of my trades since the 2007 journal closed are swing trades.

    For me a swing trade is at least a 1 day hold and probably 5 days to a few weeks. I have held up to 6 weeks or so. Since early Feb 2007, I have sharply reduced all long term hold style trades, i.e. buy a stock/etf and forget about it for 2 - 3 years. Long term hold trading in my retirement portfolio served me very well from 2003 through most of 2007. In particular EEM comes to mind.

    I know the ZB intimately and have been trading it on and off since 1994. I can't say the same for any other futures contract. I trade what I enjoy.
    #11     Mar 9, 2008
  2. The journal was a worthy experiment although stressful. Constant posting distracts one from the task at hand. It became a bit compulsive I think. I trying to avoid that this time around.
    #12     Mar 9, 2008
  3. This will have to do for now. I'm trying to juggle this and movie time with the wife. You know who comes first, right?

    A protective stop would have taken you out of a long trade on 29 Feb 2008. The long trade was entered on 09 Feb 2008. A sell signal was generated on 06 Mar 2008.

    RIO gave a sell signal on 07 Mar 2008. The long entered on 29 Jan 2008 was exited via stop on 04 Mar 2008 after RIO broke below 34.00. I'm standing aside on RIO.

    DRYS is on my list of stocks I'm beginning to hate. So much promise. So many people jumping in after the spectacular earnings! It closed at 67.64 on Friday. Pretty impessive downmove since the 28 Feb 2008 sell. I show a possible buy point at 63 and change, but I'll have to confirm once we get there. I know it sounds like the "woulda, shoulda, coulda" of horse racing, but DRYS was on its way to 200 USD a share if it weren't for the US market downturn beginning late last year.

    GLD gave me an add on buy signal on 04 Mar 2008. Any price near 95. My Neural Network Stochastic system gave me a buy on 06 Mar 2008, with a stop at 93. I haven't taken either signal as I'm long from earlier. We are on historic ground here, so I would be very cautious. My thoughts still are that 100 for GLD is a given.

    Two different NN systems I designed gave long signals on 28 Feb 2008. One of the nets is a stochasitc system. The other is based on a combination of S/R and Cycles. The S/R Cycle net has for its inputs various Peak and Valley points that I determine, various cycles, and various special S/R lines. What is interesting to me is that whenever I examine the output of any of my nets, I like to look at a chart with the indicators that I developed that go into the net. My S/R Cycle net gave the signal to go long on the open of 28 Feb 2008. My visual inspection of the S/R Cycle chart gave me my long signal on 29 Feb 2008. We are already well into this move. One thing that SRS taught me last year is that it is very cyclical, and should be traded only for a short time frame. The Fed has a habit of killing an SRS run to the upside every time.

    SPY gave a sell signal on 29 Feb 2008. See the above on SRS.

    QID gave a buy signal on 29 Feb 2008.

    QLD gave a sell signal on 29 Feb 2008.

    30 year yield
    This is a difficult chart to read. We are within my dynamic peak / valley channels, but we are beneath a median line of these two channels. That means my bias is to the short side for the 30 year yield. Obviously this means the opposite for the ZB futures contract.

    ZB daily chart (June 2008)
    The chart looks positive. I would look to get long at a good price between Friday's low and close, and I would be very cautious around 118 16 and 119 00. Reports and spike movements will change this opinion in less than a second.

    Final word:
    At the moment I have a large position in GLD. No positions in anything else.
    #13     Mar 9, 2008
  4. To further clarify, I do not day trade any stocks or etf's. I only day trade futures contracts, and at the moment, I'm only day trading the ZB contract. My posted chart on 29 Feb 2008 is the standard I seek when day trading the ZB.

    In conclusion, stocks are held a minimum of 1 day, and the ZB could be closed out prior to EOD or held for more than a day. For now the ZB is day traded throughout the week only when solid trades come up. My ZB signals occur at most 2 - 3 times a day, but more likely only 1 or 2 trades on 1 to 3 days a week.

    The point I was trying to make when I started this 2008 journal is that if you are used to the constant up to the second posts I made in the 2006 and 2007 journal, I won't be doing that this time around.

    I'm working on automating my signals to the point where I can generate a forum post exactly when a signal is generated.
    #14     Mar 10, 2008
  5. RIO closed at 60.40 on 10 Mar 2008. I post as I mentioned a possible buy at 63. Obviously that is not the case.

    The down move since the sell signal gets better and better.
    #15     Mar 10, 2008
  6. I didn't have time to trade the ZB yesterday. Looking at my above quote posted on Sunday, I believe that was enough information to make roughly 10 to 16 ticks on a single early morning trade.

    I shouldn't have to state the obvious, but take what I post, and filter with your own observations.
    #16     Mar 10, 2008
  7. John,

    About those DRYS "supports".. At least you were closer..
    #17     Mar 10, 2008
  8. I apologize, I meant DRYS obviously, not RIO.
    #18     Mar 10, 2008
  9. Thanks! I'm still amazed at the downturn.

    To anyone following along unfamiliar with DRYS, the business model of the drybulk shippers is remarkable. Have your customers pay for your ships! Don't buy a new ship until all shipping contracts are in. Yes, a little simplified but that's the gist of it.

    I'll post when a buy signal comes in for DRYS, but it may be several days.

    I think SRS might be the one to trade off of cycles. Pull up a chart and take a look. Every bottom approaching 100 for roughly the last three months has been an excellent buy.
    #19     Mar 11, 2008
  10. Pre-market 0345 hrs CST, Wed 12 Mar 2008

    30 year yield
    The 30 year yield gave a buy signal on Tuesday, 11 Mar 2008. So for the longer term play (1 - 4 weeks) it appears that the yield is going up. The appearance of the chart is price closing above my median line of my dynamic peak / valley channels. The last move similar to this occurred on 29 Jan 2008.

    Significant price points on the ZBM8 for today are:
    116 24
    116 16

    Keep in mind that with such a significant move in the ZB yesterday, one could possibly buy for a short term trade if 116 16 holds. I'm inclined to look for shorting opportunities today.
    #20     Mar 12, 2008
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