At a minimum my target is 113 28, however the reason for this short is that I believe 113 16 is a possibility today. Not a given, but definitely a possibility. Of course price behaviour at key levels determines everything.
If a break of the low comes I will take half off at 113 24. For the record, it takes up a lot of typing to keep mentioning that price will determine what I do, so FYI, price determines if I exit all at a kiss of the low, or hold on for 113 24 or 113 16 etc.
0930 CST I've been playing today very low key, no more than a 2 lot here and there due to lack of news. As it turns out, today has been a fairly solid day to the upside. I've only scalped longs today, and I wanted to mention that the break through 114 24 gave me a major buy signal on my hourly chart. Chop is possible, so I don't know how long this will last. I've bagged my daily limit, however if I choose to continue trading, my main focus for the remainder of the day would be to buy dips to 114 28. It is hard to say if buying here at 115 00 would be worth it. I think a test of 115 08 is in order but, I would be cautious and wait for a better price. In conclusion, depending on price behaviour, a dip below 114 31 towards 114 28 is probably a buy for the very first time.
The buy signal is on an hourly chart and is usually good for the remainder of the day. Sometimes it lasts for a few days. My only caveat would be that it is possible that this is the extent of our move today, and also that I see bonds still going down to the 110 or even lower area over the next 30 to 60 days.
The above post was made at the first line, i.e. 0930. The low was 114 315 at 0940, the second vertical line. I believe it is fair to say I made you 8 - 10 ticks net today, if you took the trade.
0835 CST Hourly sell signal occured at 0630's 1 hour bar during the break below 115 01. The actual break came at roughly 0602 on the 1 min bar chart. I post as this signal generally speaking can be good for at least 1 day. Obviously it looks like today it will probably be good for the entire day. Caveat is we really are in volatile territory here with all of the doom and gloom.
0847 CST Update Long at 114 200 with a tight stop. Target is 114 25. I can't post real-time so post is late and I won't post my exit real-time. Need to watch market now.
0852 CST Out at 114 215. I still think we will pop here to the upside with a target of 114 26 to 114 28, however I'll wait until after 0900 to make another trade. Also, those two numbers and especially 114 28 will make for an excellent place to consider a short.
0905 CST Looking to scalp short again between 114 160 to 114 180. Watch the ES for some hints if you are going to take on size.