0716 CST Sold 4 at 111 19. The 6 ticks I'm good for with no effort whatsoever. This is the way to start the day.
0733 CST Looking to get in with size, 10 to 20 lot buy. So far bought 2 to test the waters at 111 23. 0736 CST Bought 2 more ZB 111 20. 0738 CST Bought 6 more ZB 111 24. Will look to buy up to 10 more. Should have loaded up at 111 20 and taken the 4 ticks and called it a day. 0742 CST I really wish I had loaded up at 111 20. I could then exit now. Prices are not cooperating. All of my indicators are positive though, so I'll sit tight. 0751 CST Obviously took a loss, I exited at 111 20 when we came back. I really wanted to hold but prices aren't making any sense. Should have followed my 0742 entry and exited for a small profit on some and breakeven on the others. Let's look for another one.
Long 5 at 111 18. Gun-shy. Will start with this for now. One thing that you have to learn is that when prices come back to your entry and continue further, you've got to reconsider your bias. You were obviously wrong. My bias was long. Now I have to consider that any up move in price is setting me up for a failure of price to continue. So much for the easy money today. Exit the 5 at 111 16. OK, that is 1 winner easy money followed by 2 losers in a row. My rule is to call it a day. I had excellent days on Wed and Thur, so quitting the bonds today puts me ahead of the game since the week began. Good trading!
A better rule that works ( as an option) is IF you are Long on the first bullish reaction bar, IF price goes back down to RETRACE the Low of THAT first bar( or more than 80%) then exit Long( with small loss or small profit). Most of the time( about 90%, prices will reverse down. My observation for the past 10 years. As you can see, this is what happened today at 8:30 am est.
Thanks Lance for a good pointer. Is a reversal like this usually usher in a short term trend reversal from your experience? jim
According to my technical analysis, the down reaction today ( there is a double Bearish Divergence on the 60min chart , MACD 3-15-1) to a Bullish Housing Report means that many Longs are taking profits before the Holiday and before the more important CPI . But this reversal will not be VALID unless it goes down beyond the key Support level of yesterday- 111-06( first retrace after the 111-11 high).Remember that the Spec Shorts COT Report were high NET SHORT before this retracement ( from 109-06) and most of them were expecting the main Trend to continue down so they had to cover their short positions. The MACD should cross down the Zero Line till it finds suppport ( probably at the 20 Daily MA) By the price action as of 9:58 am est it is looking more like profit taking and NOT a reversal day.
Short from 111-18 Target 111-11 ZBH7.10:00am- Another bullish report for Tresuries and a down reaction
at 10:05 ET it looks like the morning reaction after the PPI was a top for the day. In my case i prefer to avoid to trade inside this noise. I'll wait to go long around 107'13-107'10 range later on TY
50% Fib Retracement from 111-11 is 111-19 so 111-20 was below 61.8% Fib. Low risk entry short (111-21 key Resistance)