Ideally on a day trade, I would exit half or most at 108 020. However, I'm bullish. Bullish enough to hold out for higher prices even if it means a hold for a few hours or over night.
No. Sorry, I don't know much about the Bund. I'd like to branch out and trade the Dow. I'm also very interested in the Nikkei, Kospi, and the Hang Seng, but I don't follow them. Whatever has the liquidity is fine by me.
During London trading hours when the Bunds are open (starting 2 am eastern time) it seems that the majority of TYM volume is driven by blackbox trading between the Bunds and the eCBOT.
I don't see my exit post on the above. I got out at 108 015 at 1134 CST. I'm reviewing yesterday posts to help me study and confirm my mindset at each point. The only thing wrong with the above trade is that I stated I would get out at 111 17 on the 30 year. Well, 108 025 on the 10 year was close enough, but I didn't take it. Also, I had one last trade at 1143 CST thinking that we would finally breakout to the upside. I bought 4 ZN at 108 025. I exited those at 2041 CST at 108 015. With tomorrow being a very important 0730 report day it made no sense to worry about the above trade through tomorrow's open. The above two trades demonstrate mistakes that I made today. The first one I should have exited at my predefined target, and the second one I should never have taken. If you notice, most of my success this month of April has been due to changing my strategy slightly to emphasize time and buying/selling areas of value. I've steered clear of chasing highs / lows expecting a break out. That only works when we have consistent and methodical follow through by price. It seems we've entered a season of range trading. With the above in mind, the second trade was not justified.
Analysis It looks like I may have been premature on my exit of the ZN's, but one cannot count on the Asian markets tanking to obtain a profit on a scalp trade. My assessment for tomorrow is that we will go higher in bonds. We may get a spike down with the 0730 reports but I think we are seeing that the market wants to go higher. I see 112 12 to 112 21 as possible targets. I'll be looking to buy dips at previously reported key numbers. In particular I'll re-examine my trades yesterday to see which ones were particularly noteworthy and place buys there. The two that come to mind are the attempted buy of the ZB at 111 13 and the actual buy of the ZN at 108 010. I occasionally trade the Dow, my guess for tomorrow is that the Dow goes down, and with that the Bonds go up. Just a guess, and doesn't always work.
0747 CST Bought 4 ZB at 111 21 on the dip just a few minutes ago. I'm looking for 111 23 to 111 24. I'd love for it to go higher, and I think that 111 18 has proven to be very strong BUT the chart does look toppy. 0753 CST I have an upper target of 112 00 on the ZB. I think any run on stops would take us there very quickly. If a run happens look to take take profits on half or more.
Out earlier at 111 23 per the above target. Learned my lesson from yesterday's 2 mistakes. The bonds aren't looking as strong as I thought. I'll probably try one more buy trade and then I'll have to reconsider my bias.
0828 CST I didn't but the trade to take recently was going long between 111 18 and 111 21 at roughly 0815 CST. If you did, take half off at 111 23 or 111 24. I still think we have a shot at a run on stops BUT we've tried the highs now more than once. If we go back down to the 111 18 to 111 17 area we might penetrate that important level for a test of 111 05 to 111 06. I'm watching and waiting at the moment, not committed to either side.