now you're loosing it - get in shape. You assume you know too much about myself. And let me check.... I did not have a bad call here. While ticker at 111-09 does not lie...! Anyway I don't give a sh*t. Let's keep the thread focused on the topic. p.s. I still respect you for some calls you did previously - so all fine on my side...
Why don't you two fight on another thread. Did we forget this WAS J.P's personal BOND TRADING journal? el surdo
OK, OK, I like both of you. You too Surdo! Actually all in all, my two journals have been very good with a minimum amount of sniping. Thanks to all for that. You're welcome on the call Lance. I was hoping someone took the most out of my observations for today.....I sure didn't. That is actually not a bad thing for newbies (not you guys) to review. You can be right on your observations, even know that your target will probably be hit, and yet get out too soon. Technically though, I'm not too upset with myself, time must be factored in to a trade. The only way to get around this is what I consider the holy grail of trading, a single bracket trade, part of an OCA group, established prior to 0720 CST. So far, the 0950 sell is the closest thing that I've seen. The other study I'm working on, the 0735 to 0835 study actually requires waiting for a signal. Back to bonds. I found this from Bloomberg to be very interesting: " Three of the seven biggest moves in the benchmark 10-year note during the past 10 months occurred on employment report days, and limited participation in the market might exaggerate the reaction to a jobs report that's much stronger or weaker than forecast, said Thomas Tierney, head of Treasury trading at primary dealer Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. U.K. markets are closed on April 9, so ``the major flows might not come 'til Tuesday or Wednesday,'' Tierney said. Good Friday Moves Employment reports, usually released on the first Friday of the month, have come on Good Friday three times since 1990, and ``movements in yields were more exaggerated than the historical and expected measures would indicate,'' according to an April 4 report by primary dealer Credit Suisse. Treasuries had their biggest decline this year on March 9 when the February employment report was stronger than forecast. The 10-year note's yield rose 7.5 basis points. " http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=aD1innmlFcEg&refer=bond Closing statement from me: I've said it before, and I'll say it again. The 0950 sell has worked like clockwork for the last 1 - 2 weeks. While I'd like to say it worked every time, I won't as you have to combine the knowledge of the 0950 sell with the proper S/R entry. Also, as I've mentioned, MACD has worked the last 2 weeks as well. You have to know the settings, but if you have some basic charting software you should be able to figure it out.
Analysis for today, Friday 06 April 2007 First, re-read my post immediately above this post re: the Bloomberg link. Visit that link. For today I think we have a shot at the following, the first one without question: 110 28 110 15 This is where I'm leaning initially. I see this as a down leg and a worst case target would be 109 27 with a likely worst case target of 109 31. Personally I think there has got to be a lot of buyers at 110 16. The 109 27 to 109 31 numbers are what I called "spike" numbers. Its a special secret sauce recipe I cooked up myself several years ago. It is all based on a single worst case scenario based off of a 0730 report. I'll probably avoid the 0950 trade as it is a short day today. I'll be concentrating on the 0735 trade and I'll post it immediately. This particular trade will be based solely off the NN. Now, I may do a discretionary trade seconds after the 0730. That remains to be seen. Per my previous posts, my standard routine is to buy/sell reactions back to S/R off of the report. It is a dangerous game but if you judge it correctly the pay off is an easy 10 ticks, and maybe more. Sell targets are 111 04 and 111 09. If we break yesterday's high and keep on going obviously I'll stand aside and re-evaluate. Bias is short.
0735 CST Sold 2 110 13. Not confident on this trade, danger of a spike to 110 23. Watching carefully. Target 110 06.
bingo! we may correct from here a little bit - I guess damage is done for the day. p.s. nice call Lance
Out at 110 12 when price approached my entry after kissing 110 08. I should have taken 110 09 when I had the chance. Looking to short again around 110 20's.