The US had more than 2 decades to deal with this and decides to do something at the worst possible moment. This is not a good time to make "anything" more expensive for the US. Bad bad idea.
Looking at the price action last Friday Mar 30 ( ZBM7), This was one of the most difficult Intraday actions to trade in a very long time: Prev Day was an NR7 ( Only 12 ticks range )- the first report on Friday the market breaks the Prev High with NO FOLLOW THROUGH, then makes a bullish 7 ticks High Volume reaction to the second Report with NO FOLLOW THROUGH, then breakdown of Prev Low with NO FOLLOW THROUGH, followed by a 17 ticks high volume ( close at high of bar ) reaction to Geopolitical News and NO FOLLOW THROUGH ! then down again to test the low, only to bounce one tick above it, WAO ! What a Roller Coaster Ride !
I would rather be long at these levels, but it sure feels like we will break 111 before going sideways and back up eventually. I scalped a bunch on that spike Friday, but stayed long and will add lower. el surdo
Yes, I agree with Lance. Friday, 30 March 2007 was one of the more difficult days to trade, at least the late morning, and early afternoon part. Thankfully I called it a day between 1030 and 1045 CST time frame. I think I'll coin a new phrase for the journal based on Friday. I've talked about "V" days in the past. Friday was an M day. Take a look at the 5 min chart.
I just noticed that now! I didn't do a refresh on the data, maybe that explains it? My volume bars are accurate. Here's a 640 volume chart, but it doesn't really illustrate my "M" designation.
"IT'S A MAD MAD MAD MAD WORLD whirls around a car chase to find $350,000 buried in a park in Santa Rosita under the 'Big W'. A check of the maps shows Santa Rosita obviously is a fictitious place - or is it? Both I and a good friend in Australia would like to find out where the 'Big W' park really is ... San Diego, maybe?" http://www.dvdtalk.com/dvdsavant/s14bigw.html
Pure speculation follows. I wonder if the normal course of Friday was to die at the pivot instead of spiking through it? The pivot was 111 17. If you notice, right around the rumor release we traded up to the pivot and then blazed right through it. My guess (and it can only be a guess) is that without the news we would have stopped at the pivot setting up for a classic short signal. As a matter of fact, I bet a lot of folks got killed there, i.e. taking on shorts, maybe even taking on larger size than normal only to see prices go 16 ticks against you in seconds. That move was on par with any major end of month 0730 report. The other possible scenario would have been for price to exceed the pivot but stop at 111 21 to 111 23. Very important numbers if you look at the weekly chart.
Thoughts on Trading This past Friday illustrates an excellent example of a day where a trader can learn an enormous amount about all of the little things that make up trading. 1) Stops are very important You must know immediately upon entry how far the trade may go against you. You must be prepared to get out at that point, even if it means that a few minutes later you are back in again, in the same direction as the first trade. 2) Support and resistance are key If you don't understand this, then you must search on elitetrader and find the various posts that deal with S/R. A quick and dirty method is to look at yesterday's 5 minute chart, followed by a weekly 30 min chart, identifying key numbers where price seemed to pause. Pivots are another way. Fibonacci is another way. 3) Volume is key You must understand volume and its relationship to price. 4) Stuff happens! No matter how well planned your trade is, stuff happens. Look at the 1030 to 1045 time frame on Friday. Trust me. I've traded off and on since 1994. I play a game called myBrainTrainer fairly regularly. If I couldn't get a fill, it is more than likely that many other people didn't get in either. In addition, how many people got entries way up at the top thinking that price would at least test 112 05 to 112 11? On a final note, if you trade the full day, and don't learn how to trade a day like Friday, a key thing to remember, is that a day like Friday can reward you dramatically in the first half and take it all away in the second half. I've written about this more than once when I commented on "V" days and my difficulty with them. Bottom line, an attempt to short at 111 13 is legitimate. However, when prices went no lower that 111 09, and then returned to your entry, and broke through and tested 111 17 to 111 19 in a matter of less than a couple of minutes, if you wanted to continue to trade you had to go long. Let's say your entry was poor, at 111 19. You would place a stop at 111 13, and watch carefully. Right at this time, around 1047 prices started behaving madly. Anytime prices are skyrocketing, you must treat the episode like a 0730 report and you must know that you have to exercise a tight stop and be ready to get out and walk away to let price settle down. Bottom line, if you had reversed your 111 13 short, you were looking at approximately 10 ticks on the long entry. Keep in mind that the above scenario is all 20:20 hindsight. I couldn't get filled. Granted I was using limit orders and not market orders, but by the time I set the next limit order price was on to the next level. After a few attempts I gave up because I knew that 112 00 was coming up and per my earlier posts you know how I feel about the 00's.