Bond Trader 2007

Discussion in 'Journals' started by johnpinochet, Feb 6, 2007.

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  1. My thoughts are we will bust through to 121 or better, however, it is time to be cautious as the close today is 114.30. Longer term, I'm looking for 150.
     
    #1031     Aug 14, 2007
  2. Here is the YMU7. Nice!
     
    #1032     Aug 14, 2007
  3. Here is the ZBU7. Even better. Notice the behaviour at 109 17.
     
    #1033     Aug 14, 2007
  4. Well, here are my levels (5min INDU chart). I use spot index instead of future but picture is the same.
     
    #1034     Aug 15, 2007
  5. Here is 15 min INDU chart with WGSR lines along with my lines. I don't think it is coincidence by chance rather the similar ideas behind. The advantage of John's lines is clear stated price levels calculated in advance, I cannot do the same. Unfortunately there is no WGSR near open, it was nice short opportunity.
     
    #1035     Aug 15, 2007
  6. MoveTimer,

    I am flattered. Thank you for looking into this closely. For the record, I want to state publicly that I do believe your method to be superior to my WGSR method. You have a lot of theory and math background behind yours. My theory has pattern recognition and some college level math behind it. I have passed it through a neural net but I find I can do better by treating it just like support and resistance with a small "X" factor that is more intuitive than anything else. This small "X" factor is an indication on whether the WGSR level will hold or be broken. I think my bond market experience comes into play there.

    I'll try to post the levels prior to market open over the next few days. It is difficult between family and other obligations. I may not be able to today.

    FYI to anyone following along, I believe this WGSR theory will work on the more liquid stocks. It is working on SRS, hint hint. To be honest I think it will work well on any stock that is essentially an aggregate or fund of stocks. In particular I think it is working well right now on the banking, financial, mortgage and housing stocks.

    Now if it would only spot the next AHM I can go live on an island somewhere.

    I'm short CFC (Countrywide) since 28 by the way. Looking for the low 20's to high teens.
     
    #1036     Aug 15, 2007
  7. Bond levels

    110 16
    110 05
    109 29
    109 21

    YMU7 Levels

    Use the one's published yesterday if we can get back that far. At the moment I can't calculate lower levels due to my lack of YM data. Personally I think things look bad for the Dow, but I've had a dreadful feeling about the Dow since 27 Feb 2007, so we can't go by feelings alone. I'll post more later, if time permits.
     
    #1037     Aug 15, 2007
  8. FYI on non-bond issue.

    I've posted about SRS and mentioned that it is a cycling stock. I wanted to mention that I got out at 115 yesterday (Wednesday) based on my posted observations. Granted, it was premature, as the stock went up to 121.29 today (Thursday), BUT I'd rather have the profit I made from buying the cycle low and selling near a projected top than holding SRS now that it closed at 109.99. Yeah, you read that right, 3 times in a row as it broke through its yearly high, it has closed down for the day, each time. I'll be watching carefully for another buy opportunity.

    My only remaining issue now is what to do with my AAPL and CFC puts. I more than doubled my money in a matter of a few days but with today's reversal I'm sitting at a 30% gain only on these puts. Should have gotten out on the double gain.
     
    #1038     Aug 16, 2007
  9. I look at the previous post and get goosebumps.

    In any event, because today is so important with the 2 messages, i.e. Bush and Bernacke, I decided to post briefly.

    ZB WGSR

    111 28
    111 23

    111 15
    111 12

    YM WGSR

    13408
    13353
    13208
     
    #1039     Aug 31, 2007
  10. John,

    No more updates of your scenarios in this journal?
     
    #1040     Oct 9, 2007
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