I'm not sure what your goals are, however, if you took the first short at 112 21, you should have a profit of 6 - 10 ticks on 1 contract. That is 180 - 312 profit on one contract. If you took the long at 112 15, you have another 120 profit. Consider calling it a day. Also, I've called direction 3 times in a row now, i.e. short at 112 21, long at 112 15, and stand aside on 2nd short at 112 21 as it looked like prices were going to test the upper range. That is three perfect calls in a row. That is another reason to consider calling it a day.
Sorry for the late post on the cycle high. I actually had it up over 30 minutes ago. Posting here kept me from paying attention. ;-)
31 January 2006 Yesterday, Monday 30 January 2006, was a classic range trade day. The best trades of the day were early. A short based purely on the important price projection number of 112 21 should have been taken between 112 19 to 112 22 in the few minutes after the report. A long should have been taken after prices hit 112 10 and did not go further. The safest place to take the long was 112 15. I got out of my trade at 112 19 due to my nervousness with taking a long trade when the market had just made a new low. In retrospect, 112 21 was probably a given, however, due to the reasons I posted yesterday, I still stand behind my decision to close out. The next and final trade for the day was the cycle high I called at 0850 CST. Prices spiked to 112 25. You could have gone short as late as 112 22 and still made a quick and easy 4 ticks. A few points to keep in mind: Yesterday was a fairly narrow range trade day. While it is possible to have a range trade day for a second, a third and so on, day in a row, you have to be realistic and realize that every time we have a fairly narrow range, look out for a large move coming soon. The price projection numbers have held for Friday, and Monday. I have nothing to add for today in terms of new price projection numbers. To me this is indicative of the market being tightly wound up like a spring, ready to break forth. I usually have to make new calculations daily basis. I haven't made a calculation for three days in a row. Price activity is showing that the following levels are important: 112 26 112 21 + or - 2 ticks 112 12 + or - 2 ticks For the third time in a row, here are my price projection numbers that I calculated after the market close on Thursday: 113 10 113 01 112 30 112 21 112 07 The outliers remain the same as well. Once again, it looks like you will be better off shorting the market at one of the key price projections. Keep in mind that the price projections only work if you are carefully watching price activity, volume and time and sales. You need to know that things are petering out. That is the part that I know how to do. Call it intuition, call it a feel for the pulse of the market, call it what you will. Whatever it is, I have it and I don't think it is possible to convey exactly what "it" is here in this forum. I would stay out of short trades that begin to kiss the double 00's on the high side, i.e. 113 00, for reasons previously mentioned. On the other side of the coin, the more days that we stay in a narrow range, if we approach 112 00, look out below! I would say that my outlier low targets will easily be met, if we break through 112 00. Finally, going back to the idea of a range trade day and its relation to a possible big move in the following day or days. Think of it as pent up frustration. Think of the frustration that you feel, knowing that the market will go down (or up), and then watching as it simply traded in a narrow range. Now project that frustration on the collective minds of all the market participants. When the dam breaks, watch out below (or above)! With the above analogy in mind, if in fact the break is to the downside, and prices trade decisively below 112 07, you have a shot to make a quick 7 ticks with a target of 111 30.
Consumer Confidence and NAPM-Chicago both due out at 0900 CST. With the FOMC at 1315 CST, the bond market may very well have another range trade day until then. I have a ton of other things to do so I won't be following the market as heavily today. The market looks like it really can't decide here at the 112 18 to 112 22 level. Gee, does that level sound familiar? Remember the 2 hour waste of time we had last week? I'm going to stand aside for now. If I do take a trade it may be close to 0900 CST. For whatever it is worth, at 0843, the market looks like it wants to test the higher end of its range. Neural network CCI has been positive since the lows this morning.
Pre-market commentary 01 February 2006 For the fourth time in a row, I will have done no mathematical calculations for my price projection numbers. For my observations on this see yesterday's pre-market commentary. Before we get started, did you catch the 0300 CST short today at 113 01, followed by a cover anywhere between 112 30 to 112 26? No? Since Wednesday or Thursday of last week, I've published that 113 01 is the line in the sand for prices to move higher. Don't worry, I didn't take it either! ;-) Commentary on yesterday? What is there to say? I called for the market to test it's high range, and I said that my neural network CCI indicator had been positive since the low. I also said that due to the appearance of going back into that time wasting range of last week that I would stand aside. Other than an occasional glance I didn't look at the market. Any other reasons why I didn't look at the market yesterday? Well, how about taking a look at what happened at between 1315 and 1415 CST. Pretty scary, isn't it? I had no idea that exact thing would happen, but I also knew the market was waiting for the FOMC meeting and it was indecisive at the point I made my last post. I also knew that based on the historical signficance of this meeting that strange things might happen. Reports MBA Purchase Applications ***30-Year Bond Announcement*** Construction Spending ISM Mfg Index Pending Home Sales Index Motor Vehicle Sales
Price activity from way back on 26 Jan 2006 that is still pertinent today: 113 01 - a line in the sand for an upside move 112 22 - important bounce number 112 15 - low 112 11 low Don't forget that really strange 2 hour trading range mentioned in my 26 Jan 2006 recap. Price projection numbers: 113 10 113 01 112 21 112 07 For the outliers, I must go with two numbers for the extreme high and two numbers for the extreme low as the rate of occurence in my calculations for all four numbers is significant. Outlier high: 113 22 113 16 Outlier low: 111 30 111 24 No bias today. Well, except for a bias to make money on a decisive move one way or another. Remember, we've had essentially no movement for a few days in a row.
Neural net stoch/rsi just kicked off a buy signal at anywhere between 112 22 => 112 24. I'm not taking it, but there is the signal.
I'm having some trouble with my dtniqfeed quotes. They've been misprinting all last week, causing me to have to hand edit 10's of misprints, last week, and I suspect the same this week. Anyone else having problems? Thank God for IB as a backup!