I would look to go long with a single lot anywhere between 110 15 and 110 18. I don't think we will go there. Given the early hour, my thoughts are we will test higher, maybe 110 28 or so before the close of the day.
Long 1 ZB at 110 26. Single contract only. I've made my money for today. This is just for fun. Stop at 110 21. Looking for a test of 111 00. By the way, keep in mind the activity that occured earlier in the morning. We could have a run on stops. Take your 4 - 6 ticks when you get them. For right now, looking for a break above 110 29 to confirm that a run to 111 00 is possible.
Out at 110 25 for 1 tick loss. Didn't like the lame approach to 110 28. I think the above is my cue to exit. Good luck! Be careful of this market. It could stay in a range from 110 28 to 110 22 for the rest of the day. Unless you close your eyes and buy at 110 22 or sell at 110 28, you'll end up losing today. Obviously none of the above applies if we spike up or down hitting stops. Finally the close your eyes part is only given as an example.
Let's see, now on Saturday morning for me I see I wasn't thinking clearly. The above should state: "...I'm always able to trade the left side of the "V" with no problems. The right side back up to the previous highs and then higher has been my downfall."
The clue was in the initial price action ( maybe you did not notice), the first five minutes the ZBZ traded from 111-08 all the way down to 110-25, a fifteen tics move, but it was NOT supposed to retrace more than fifty percent, if it was thruly going down. Then the second clue was the testing of the 110-22 support THREE times, the second should have penetrated if it was going to go down further, the last clue of a pending REVERSAL was the EIGHT TICS move UP from 110-22 ( lots of buyers waiting after the failiure to go thru support)
The retrace UP was from 110-28 to 111-06, this was very unusual specially after a down move of such magnitude. So the entry time window SHORT would have had to be on the first 15 minutes after the PAYROLL report, then no more than 10 tics of profit targeted( get the hell out because it ain't going down NO MORE !)
Can you trade bonds on a purely technical basis? Just chart formations, flags, etc. without knowing the fundamentals of the market?
Bearbelly, Great username by the way. The below is all in good fun: You are here reading my journal, right? If you have the time and inclination you can go back through the entire thread with a 5 minute chart, check the posted time vs what the chart says. You'll find out that I was trading and posting real-time. I thought that was clear from the beginning of this thread. The point I'm trying to make is that other than being aware of the schedule of reports for the week and their perceived impact, I could care less about the fundamentals. Am I aware of the fundamentals and can I discuss them at great length? Yes, of course. I devour every article about the credit markets on the WSJ, Barrons, Bloomberg, Korean press, Japanese press etc etc. But, when all is said and done, my trading, as detailed here, is all about price, support and resistance, key price levels (proprietary), and money management. Now, if you are looking to invest long term, then yes, fundamentals are very important. It is just that I've found that I'm terrible at long-term analysis of the 30 year Bond, but excellent at predicting a 4-6 tick move on an intra-day basis. This journal proves that.
Lance, Thanks for stopping by. I appreciate seeing how you interpreted the day's events. I'll get the way back up right one of these days. As I studied the chart today, Saturday, I can only conclude that I would have gotten in as we approached 111 00 on the way back up on 5 min bar 0935 or 0940. It looks like I would have paid around 110 30 or 110 31. What I'd like to be able to do is have the confidence to buy at 110 22 to 110 26 around 0900. That is easier said than done. I'll study your advice in more detail. Thx, John