Man, I'm tempted to stop posting. Wouldn't that be quite the legend: mystery guy shows up. Makes rather remarkable calls, then disappears. Ha, ha.
If you didn't get out of some of your position at 112 23, consider getting out now just to be safe. Cycle low of 930 CST hit with a price low of 112 19. You should have sold half at 112 23 per my earlier post, and either sold more lower or held on and got out now since we are back to 112 23. Look to go short again, I'm not going to say where as I may be done for the day. Just look at price activity. Price activity may taper off and consolidate for awhile. I hate these 30 - 45 minute rectangular patterns of price activity in a narrow range. Also, don't get greedy. Yesterday's range was remarkable. Two back to back 32 tick plus days in a row are not common, so don't expect today to be a repeat of yesterday. Traders may drive prices back to 112 24 => 112 31.
So far I'm batting two for two on pre-open market commentary for the 30 year bonds. I wrote up several solid paragraphs of observations on yesterday, however I've left the text document on a pc at another location, and I'll have to retrieve it this weekend. I've titled this post, "RECAP 26 January 2006", and if I am unable to edit this post in a couple of days I'll simply add a new one and title it the same as this one. This post will not deal with commentary for today or predictions for today.
I'm pretty busy at the moment so I'll post as I'm able to, unforutunately this will lead to multiple posts. Pre-market analysis First, here are 3 numbers to consider from yesterday. All 3 speak for themselves. 113 01 - a line in the sand for an upside move 112 22 - yesterday's first bounce 112 15 - yesterday's low
Pre-market analysis continued: As an aside, things I did well yesterday: Nailed the 112 21 low at 0740 CST Nailed the 0930 CST time cycle low Back to analysis: Also, keep in mind that for the longest time yesterday, from 1040 until 1250 CST, the market traded in a very narrow range from 112 18 to 112 23. I believe this is very important. This narrow rectangular range is for me a period of signficant consolidation for a 5 minute time frame. 1040 to 1250 is over 2 hours! Things typically don't slow down in the bond market until roughly 1200. I believe that is it for significant numbers from yesterday's price activity. Here they are again: 113 01 112 22 112 15 Finally, don't forget the rather unusual length of time (for 5 min bar) spent in the 112 18 to 112 23 range. Now, on to my price projection points for the day. 113 10 113 01 112 21 112 07 For the outliers, I must go with two numbers for the extreme high and two numbers for the extreme low as the rate of occurence in my calculations for all four numbers is significant. Outlier high: 113 22 113 16 Outlier low: 111 30 111 24 I have no bias today. Two down days in a row don't necessarily lead to a third down day. Finishing the day where we did yesterday, and especially with the 2 hour narrow range previously mentioned leads to a neutral stance. There are two economic reports due out today, and I believe the most significant will be the 0730 CST GDP. This report should set the tone for the rest of the day. If the GDP is bad for bond prices, then short trades at resistance are in order. Just so there is no misunderstanding, here is how I would trade just immediately after the report, if the numbers were bad. As prices spiked down and broke 112 15, and on down to to 112 07, I would short any re-test between 112 15 and 112 20. Yes, I would miss the trade down to 112 07 by not being in before 0730 CST, but geesh, it could just as easily spike up to 112 30 and 113 10. Another very important point to make, prices love to do funny things at the double 00's. Prices could trade up and down from 113 00 by a couple of ticks on either side before choosing a direction.