Man, the market has been very predictable this week, trading off of the numbers. Recap 10 February 2006 Based on the above you knew that an important report was coming out at 0730. There was a long trade starting at 0630 that you could have exited at 0725 for a 7 tick profit. But let's throw that out, as my posting and my plan thus far has been trades starting at 0720. 0730 The report comes out. What happens? Nothing. 0740 Short 2 ZB's at 113 10. Target is 113 01/02. 0800 Closed out 2 at 113 09. Never let a trade that goes in your predicted direction turn into a loss. At this point I decided to carefully reconsider my short bias. Why? First, 113 05 held. Second, prices came right back to my entry. 0815 Long 2 ZB's at 113 09. Target 113 16. 0855 Close above at 113 13. 0930 Short 4 ZB's at 113 10. This was primarily based on the fact that we made the following attempts at highs and failed: 0740, 0850 and 0915. Target is 113 05/01. 0950 Close all of above at 113 05. NN CCI starting to look positive. 1000 I watched price bounce off of 113 01 at 1000, but I couldn't take the long trade there. It just didn't feel right. NN CCI was definitely positive at 1000. Would have been a trade good for 4 - 6 ticks, with a target of 113 10/11. 1015 Now hitting resistance established between 0755 and 0815. Would love to go short around 113 11, but now need to keep this current level in mind as resistance due to price activity earlier. 1015 - 1040 Rectangular range established. 113 08 is the high and 113 05 is the low. 1045 Short 4 ZB's at 113 05. Thoughts are that we will test 113 01 at least. Price activity is weak. NN CCI is very weak. 1055 Close out 3 ZB's at 113 01. Holding 1 for possible lower prices. 1100 We've kissed 112 28. We've broken through that very important number of 113 01. I'm essentially done for the day, and will not take on any more positions, but I'll continue to hold the 1 ZB for possible further action. If we go back above 113 01, I'll exit. 1145 Closed final position at 112 25. Done for the day. Was it worth a wait of 45 minutes? Definitely not. I made an additional 8 ticks (113 01 to 112 25), but for me, the ability to walk away an hour earlier at 1055 is priceless. Less stress. More time for my other interests. The opportunity to close out at 112 28 occurred again at 1120, so that should have been the ideal time to close.
I'll be taking a break until Wednesday at a minimum. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be giving his semiannual monetary policy testimony starting this Wednesday. It might be a good idea to not trade at all until Friday. If you insist on trading, don't forget the 5 - 10 minute spike we had during the last meeting. I personally would have had a hard time trading that spike. It is easy to forget about the meeting since it isn't a simple release of a report.. It is a meeting that may go on for an hour or more. At any time during that meeting you may get a dramatic spike. Do yourself a favor and stay away. By the way, I did not trade yesterday due to no news and the upcoming meeting, but as I look at the chart, I would have to say that yesterday would be an example of a small loss day. The ZB's were all chop for most of the day.
On 06-16-06 03:01 AM, I posted: "I've written extensively about the dangers of the 00's. That was my rationale for the exit. Later in the morning when we went back to test 107 04, I sold a single contract at 107 03 and I'm sitting on it overnight as I think 106 16 is a possibility for tomorrow." "tomorrow" meaning Friday 16 June 2006. A low of 106 18 on Friday was close enough to my call of 106 16. I think today will be a range trade day. I'm biased to the downside. I'm short 4 ZB's 2 at 106 20 and 2 at 106 16. My profit targets are: 106 15 106 09 and an outlier low of 106 03. I already had a chance to take profit at 106 15 but decided to wait. No news today.
Out of everything at 10:23 CST at 106 15. It is already 3 hours into the trading day. Very little movement. We hit my target already once and I stood aside. I'm not going to do it twice. Price activity down here at 106 15 is very lethargic. Calling it a day. Almost 500 USD is pretty darn good (300+ on ZB, and a little on ZN and ES).
Just to clarify: In addition to the above ZB, I did the following: Sell 1 ES 1258.25 at 0929 CST Buy 1 ES 1257.50 at 0939 CST Sell 2 ZN 104 240 at 0508 CST Sell 2 ZN 104 265 at 0746 CST Buy 4 ZN 104 240 at 1018 CST
Today we have housing starts at 0730 CST. This should be a report good for 6 - 10 ticks either way. I've already discussed how I trade a day like today. Summary: good report = buy pullbacks after initial spike up / bad report = sell rallies after initial drop. This is not easy trading. You need charting software and market profile view to see volume/strength dry up at key levels prior to taking a position. In any event, I don't take a position at all until after 0735 and possibly as late as 0745. I have 106 28 and 107 07 on the high end. I have 106 15 and 106 03 on the low end. As of 0617 CST I have a short bias as it looks like they are taking the ZB higher in order to sell into the 0730 report. Of course there isn't much to be said volume/activity wise at this time. That is it for now. Good trading!
Hello. I found this forum yesterday and saw your postings. I too am a bond trader and am currently short. I took most of mine off at 10614 yesterday, and will cover the rest today as I am getting ready for a much needed vacation. I am curious, how exactly you use market profile? I too use it, for finding congestions and breakouts. I guess I am called a swing trader as I will hold for days if need be.
0750 CST Here at the lows of the day in the ZB 106 15. Will we break or go higher? I'm saying we break for a test of new lows.
ECTrader, I'll reply later when I am able. I've not posted here much since my posting experiment ended back in February. I'm doing it now with less writing and commitment. Posting interferes with trading.
OK we've broken. Targets are 106 12, 106 09, 106 07 and 106 03. If we break 106 03, we may see 105 27. Take profits at any of those points. I'm sitting on 4 lots.