Sold 1 ZB 112 17 at 0925 CST I will sell another at the pivot 112 21 if we get that high. Cycle time coming up now at 0930. Will look to get out if nothing happens in 10 minutes.
At 0935 things were looking a little too strong. Got out of 1 ZB at 112 20 and stood aside. End of my short bias. May just sit out the rest of the day. I was only joking about re-testing the highs, but obviously it appears to be doing just that.
By the way, if you went short at 112 21 and are still short, it isn't necessarily a bad trade. Just consider taking all profits anywhere between 112 19 and 112 15.
johnpinochet, Just came across this journal. Really good stuff, both your analysis and the advice on managing trades. Keep it up and good luck.
OK, here's the deal. Anytime, you think you've calculated everything for the day, and you're right initially, and you've made your profit AND the market does what it is doing right now, i.e. travel from 113 12 to 112 03 and back to 113 00, you must step aside. Get out. Leave. My bias was big time short since the price activity between the first hour of trading and the high at 112 21. I'm calling it a day. If any fellow 30 year trader is out there reading this, and you have any insight on this move back up to 113 from the low of 112 03, I would appreciate it.
I'm looking at the recent new highs of 113 09, just shaking my head at the amount of money left on the table by not reversing at 112 20. Would really love to hear from anyone who nailed today. In particular I'm looking for anyone who nailed the time period between 0930 and 0940. Finally, I'm happy with what I did, i.e. 2 winners and 1 small loss. I'd just like to get a handle on the move back up. I'm going to call it a mistake to not reverse.
I don't normally trade the bonds day to day, but coming in this morning my first idea was that I wanted to buy into any dip after the NFP. I've really no clue as to why it should go up -- all I know is that if someone wanted to buy, that would be a good a time as any *shrug*. Still might not be too late you know . . .