I sense that the right-to-work states are gaining in polulation and business activity....hmmm......... can anyone imagine why? http://www.nrtw.org/rtws.htm
Interesting chart too...the old union jack "Can I be required to be a union member or pay dues to a union? All employees of the Federal Government, including Postal Service employees, by law are guaranteed the right to refrain from union membership. See 5 U.S.C. § 7102 (federal employees generally); 39 U.S.C. § 1209(c) (postal employees). (U.S.C. stands for "United States Code.") That means that you cannot be required to remain a member or pay dues or fees to your union, no matter where you work." good post!
This was good for me so far for 5.5/32-- It's a good start, but that's all. I'll hold for now and perhaps add on dips. Does anyone else see bullish potential in the note?
Not really, but i'm not too into TA...Yields in the long stuff is still only slightly over 5, and unless the Fed says they will LOWER rates, there is really a floor now there, therefore my opinion is that upside potential in notes will be limited, unless the Fed signals otherwise... On the downside, there is PLENTY of potential for another leg down, you will notice when the Bernanke speech hit the curve dramatically steepened, with bonds barely budging, the Bond Vigilantes are seeing this as dovishness, and may push the premium on the long stuff higher to compensate for the potential for inflation (gold hit 650 and last months CPI the highest in a year)... Just my two cents though, i'm on a winning streak right now that's bound to end
The late bid on Friday can be explained by locals front-running the month-end extension buying (even though not large, it did show up in good size in futures). The big desks like Bear, Lehman, and Goldman always throw the MOC (market-on-close) orders in the pit for month end, and that makes it a bunch of fun, although messy at times. The craziest thing is these orders are done in the last minute of trading, because they try to get as close to the 2pm pit settlement as possible. In the 30yr, Bear Stearns, Lehman, and Goldman bought about 5,000 combined from 26 up to 29, the five year had huge paper buyers all afternoon on the screen from 01.5 up to 05.5 on the close, and the 10yr was a completely different story. Right at the one minute bell it was 18 bid at 18.5, then it went small 18.5 bid at 19, the Goldman broker decides to offer through the screen at 18, and proceeded to sell about 5,000 holding it 18 sellers in the pit for the last minute of the day. So for guys that are bullish, the big boys were quiet later this week and decided to let all the crazies play some quick longs off the month-end extension buying and definitely added to some shorts in size on the close. Remember, we still have the Treasury Refunding coming in two weeks, so may see some setup for that starting late next week.
Thx Mcurto I'm still sorting through this mess myself. Still looking lower, but getting mixed signals between the 30yr yield/price and the 10yr price. Probably because of the upcoming auction.
Yes, the NOB spread has been screwy this whole week, on all of these up moves the 30yr just continues to be a dog and doesn't want to participate as much as the belly of the curve (5yr and 10yr).
We're getting very close to an important low in the 10yr/30yr. Looking for the 30yr to break 106 to 105.50 or a bit lower? The 10yr has already broken 105, so maybe a bit lower too. The 30yr 5.35% yield looks like a good place to stop too. Might all happen this week!