Always, the question is "when." Gimme the answer to that and I'll give you the world. Trick is to turn a profit while retaining one's balance and sanity until the time comes ... On a related note, my bet here is that the curve is going to bounce around inversion level longer than most are comfortable with - and long end prices will rally beginning of June like clockwork according to seasonal tendency, bouncing around near current levels in the meantime. I liken it to 1999 when all (errr, many) were predicting a Nasdaq crash. Oh she'll turn, but in her own sweet time... Damn that was a long year!
And consumer confidence is at an all time high. As a consumer ask yourself - is your confidence at an all time high?
How many people do they poll for this Consumer Confidence crap? I am not confident at all. Optimistic maybe.
Consumer Confidence is at a FIVE year high, isn't it? Which means since April 2001. In any case, the inflation-risk premium is building up again.
I don't care what is actually happening, I care what everyone thinks is happening and what their bias is. Right now the prevailing bias says the economy is doing well and inflation could become a problem. I'm not trying to be hero, just trying make dollar out of .15 cents.