In the short-term, imported goods become more expensive. In the long-term, there are all kinds of adjustements taking place and the net result is not so clear.
hey mcurto- Curious to know if the dealers are hedged well for the $47B in supply over next 3 days. Are they prepared to eat a good chunk of the issue if the Asians don't show up, or do they expect the London/Caribbean funds to keep taking up the slack? Also, is the MOVE index still bumping around the 1998 levels? Thanks.
JP Morgan has sold 35,000 5yr notes from 08 down to 06.5 all on the screen and also hearing they sold 7,000 3yr bundles in Eurodollars. Holy shit!!!!!
I am not sure what these 5yrs are against, because nothing else is trading size comparable to this, not even in cash, unless they will do the other leg later in week. They are still going, up to 42,500 at this point, same levels.
Looked at time and sales after the close it was about 50,000 from 104-09.5 to 104-06.5 when I had left at 2:30 central. I would imagine this has to be related to the 7,000 3yr bundle in euros, but who knows. Either way, whoever bought the 5yr notes was not laying them off in any other futures and didn't hear of any size trading in the cash 5yr. Maybe these are hedges for all the auctions this week, as the 5yr futures are a good proxy for both cash 2's and 5's, but they definitely did more than enough to cover that.
a standard bar chart shows that the next area of congestion is in the 109 area and the volume chart-ex chart http://www.chart-ex.com/charts/30_year_tbonds_monthly.htm confirms high volume area of 10903-10907