That would make sense since people tend to liquidate or cover their positions ahead of holidays, but that would also indicate a <i>long</i> bias among those folks.
I am glad I am a short bias; however a few painful lesson have taught me that bias means nothing. The market does not care what your bias is. It will just take your money either way. Regards, Steve
Yes, they have a LONG bias, but they are trying to get the 10yr and 30yr issues to cheapen up before the auction. Wouldn't you want to get in at the lowest possible levels duing a massive Treasury refunding, especially when you own half our debt? Thus, they buy 30yr puts as they let the current issues drift lower into the auction next week. Not to mention it seems like this Friday's nonfarms is setup to be a blowout (numerous lower claims numbers, big revisions to November, wouldnt' be surprised if December the same).
Definitely a big factor in the current timing of events. Also, with data coming from Europe and Japan pointing to higher interest rates worldwide while the US government is issuing record amounts of debt, yields on bills and bonds need to go up now in order to avoid excessive volatility in foreign exchange markets.