The dollar seems to be tied exactly to short term rates - when the two years rally, the dollar drops. When the 2 years get hammered the dollar goes up. I've been looking for a spot to go long the Swiss Franc as their economy is smoking and their central bank doesn't fool around w/that kind of thing. They like their currency rock hard. However, all seems to be tied to the Fed right now. Being long the SF would essentially just be adding to my long position in Dec 07 Eurodollars. Interest rate markets have just become supertough to trade the past few years - ever since the Fed started telegraphing exactly what they were doing. I'd like the Fed to go back to its old opaque ways and let the market do some thinking for itself. Still long Dec 07 eurodollars for a multi-month trade and adding to the postion once a week or so. Last week was disheartening as they got slammed for no apparent reason. However, Friday was nice as they rallied (I assume the "excuse" for the rally was a housing start #). The best part is that I was able to add to my position at a real nice price. Just a very choppy market. I guess I'm lucky for the moment since while I am one to follow the moves of the market quite closely, I don't give a whole of attention or worry to the daily moves.
Interesting and refreshing to compare the tone of the posts on this thread as opposed to the jokers in forex who have something to prove. Sorry to interrupt.
I agree Illiquid! The usual Trolls tend to stay away, except for me of course. March was indeed not a particularly fun month for me! After getting shaken out of the tree a few times I managed to close out my 30 YR position slightly green for the month. Having said that, you know they will go back to 112 1/2 without me! I am going to regroup for a bit and see what pans out. Good trading to ya'all here!
Just reading the last few posts says a lot. What do they say; "March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb." In a week or so, I feel this market will finally start to trend: upward I believe. At least that what appears on the charts. Good trading to you all!
From my point of view -- the point of view of someone who was expecting a short rally -- a correction was due because the rally started on a very strong note so the reason why there was "no apparent reason" for bonds to get slammed would be because there was no reason indeed besides the timing of a correction. I usually see Friday moves as counter-trend but in this case the price action indicated the beginning of another leg up.
I don't know if that applies to markets but I know they say something similar in Northern Italy about the weather. The expression also rhymes in Italian: "Marzo di leone, Aprile di motone".
Ya, i've been disappointed by the inability of bonds to go lower... i may have to swallow another loss... i saw things differently... i saw no reason for the rally, and the thursday downleg as reassertion of the longer term downtrend... I hope i'm not THIS unlucky...
Didn't we have a double bottom in RSI coupled with a MACD Histogram Bullish divergence?? What's going on here that someone saw this differently? There doesn't have to be a reason for market moves. Look at technicals especially if you are undercapitalized and have to be right.
Nope, don't use technicals... i was trying something else... No, not looking for reasons, and don't wory about me i can be wrong many more times...