Just covered 2 shorts at 11020 and left a runenr out there with a buy stop at 11105. That trade I will use trailing stops. 11115 is not to hard to imagine we might trade to that level consideriing the daily range that the US had done in the past few days. I was lucky that my limit sell got hit. last 3 days peak was 11119, 11115, 11117. So I just put it out there thinking it might get hit. Once I saw PPI this AM I knew it was ok to add to my shorts on the way down. The stops for all my adds where at 11116. I figures pretty high risk/reward scenario setting up. Hope that helps explain it. I wish I would have posted trades earlier. But, I was too busy watching the markets. Regards, Steve
hey mcurto- Seems to be some rather brutal selling going on in the front end. Did some players get caught with unhedged steepeners on?
No, biggest guys faded that whole rally in euros and two-year during the repo squeeze and the Medley report plant. They felt Fed was going to 5% the whole way. Even in these down moves they still prefer flatteners.
Starting to like bonds, and like the bills alot. Maybe we need to fade those big guys fading the rally
Got my ass kicked on Friday trying to fade the long end. The long end trade has been incredibly tough this year. You get punished for buying and selling breakouts early in the year. Now on an options expiration day we actually breakout (even with the big boys like Goldman short at least 20,000 April 107 straddles into expiration). Will admit was dead wrong on Friday, not even close to the right side of the trade. Tough part for me is that sometimes I treat the long end as a rational trade when it is nothing close to rational; on the other hand, the short end being tied to the Fed and monetary policy a much more rational trade. For the most part the past few weeks after the big break in the 10's to the mid 106 handle there were more customers who felt the long end was way overdone and definitely interested in buying (whereas the Japanese have been net sellers of Treasuries on the year, but this may change as they just had Fiscal Year end). There are definitely guys fading the short end again as they feel the 2's are more fairly priced at 4.80% and Euros priced to the 5% range heading into the FOMC and supply next week.
Sorry to hear to got slammed buddy. It's been a tough market lately, very choppy. I'm still long the 2yr, have not done anything with bonds since the lows. Think the Dollar is about to retest the Jan lows. So I feel good with the 2's but keeping a tight stop. It all should clear up pretty soon and the whole complex should then trend a bit. Hand in there
I'll echo mccurto's sentiments. Sorry you got hammered. I'm still mostly on the sidelines on the long end and waiting for clarity (which will probably only happen after I've missed the whole move...)