Commercials are also significantly net long. but again they are usually early. http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/US.png
hey mcurto- I saw a reuters story that said two year notes are "on special" in the repo market resulting in a negative carry cost of 15bp. The story said that while the issue is on special it makes it difficult to put on flatteners. Since the next 2yr auction is March 27, do you think this could keep away buyers from the long end until the short-end supply crunch is over? Also is there an effect on ZT (I am not sure what is curently the CTD issue?)
I'll try not to mess this up, but with the repo squeeze in the two-year note, which has been on special since about mid last week, the two-year remains well bid and thus very tough to short for flatteners because you will have to borrow (repurchase) the note back in the repo market overnight at a negative cost of carry thus eating into profits from the short position. As a result, the two-year remains well bid from this repo-manufactured squeeze because at this point as some guys try to take off flatteners it will subsequently bid the two year. The banks (some, not all) see this as an opportunity to add to flatteners (Citi sold about 15,000 TUT's friday). This has affected the delivery process somewhat, as remember, the short carries the option to make delivery of the cash note. In this case, a very sizable delivery was made (issued) by a Morgan Stanley house account, to the tune of 15,000 two year futures, on the second day for eligible delivery, probably so these guys would not get squeezed in their futures heading into last delivery day. Just my opinion of the situation.
Betting on a short term bounce. Established a bull spread yesterday with a combination of long 30 yr ATM calls and short 10 yr OTM calls.