I have not read all 300+ pages of this journal so if this question has already been answered maybe someone can direct me to that page. If not â maybe someone can help me find the most efficient long term trade to help me profit from my beliefs. I believe the thirty year rates are going back to the 6 â 8 % range by mid year next year. Here is why. The dollar has fallen so much vs other currencies, that sovereigns who hold $1.4 trillion of our âpaperâ will soon decide to do something else with them (dollars). With our balance of payment deficits increasing at a rate of approx $50 Billion per month, If these Sovereigns do not do something else they will hold $2 Trillion by this time next year. At some point those dollars that are sloshing around the world are going to be invested in something that is sound. Consider this. If a euro was converted to a Dollar two years ago and invested into the ten year it would have earned about 4.4 %. If that ten year was sold today and converted back to euros it would be a huge loss (vis a vis the euro) even after adding the interest received. I believe these dollars will start to buy our commercial real estate soon. Today, on Loopnet, the total of ALL commercial R/E offered is only $450 Billion. This means if Sovereigns used their current cash they could buy ALL of the commercial R/E offered and still have $1.4 Trillion at this time next year. If you were a foreigner and had the option of holding our dollars as they go down or buy brick and mortar (cap rates are in the 7% area and R/E will increase in value as the $ deflates) which would you do. I believe there will be a rush out of 30 year paper soon. If so, the price of these bonds will drop dramatically. Donât even get me started on why our misstating of inflation in the US should have already sent yields up. I need to buy puts on either the thirty year, or puts on futures on the 30 year. I need a trade that gives me the most leverage over a one year period. Any ideas? I am neophyte on treasury puts so I need ticker symbols, which exchange, etc. Thanks in advance
It is determined by that contract's the pit committee. Daryl Bobko of the CBOT Market Report Department should be able to help you. His email address is dbob33@cbot.com and his telephone number is 312-435-3570. However CBOT Financials rollover is one day before first notice day, so it should be on 29th this week.
Did you already tried http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page1/1,3248,1060,00.html? or treasuries@cbot.com or call 312-341-7955.
Thank you - I had not seen that site. I Have not taken my position yet since the crisis is probably still 1-2 months away. This will help me to decide how to do the trade when I have the guts to pull the trigger.