Any stories to tell in the july note options? Sep futs held a hair under 105 going into expiry - surprised to see the market over that level now after the put holders and shorts got their fill over the past 2 days...
It would appear that Big Ben has totally lost touch with reality: (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday that many homeowners should save more now home prices have halted their rapid rise and have stabilized. Homeowners "will have to save more out of their current income and that may lead to some increase in the household savings rate," he said. "Over the medium-time horizon, we do want to see more saving. People saved less in the past decade or so precisely because home values (were rising). They did not feel that they had to put aside part of their income." Gee Ben, given the massive amount of ARM borrowing, how are these people going to make higher payments AND save? In fact, most of the exotic mortgage products (that YOU regulate) are vehicles for destroying savings! I think that the sub-prime debacle is indicative of homeowner behavior.
No comments from anyone on a rather remarkable past week? Amazing. Perhaps I can jump start the conversation. My observation is that there was minimal flight to quality in particular on Friday. I wonder if a top in the bonds is at hand.
the readers of this thread seem to have a better handle on things than BenBerk does..... we're too exhausted to type after scrambling out of US Dollars or buying equity puts..........
My instinctive move would be to short the 10Y or 30Y futures right here except when I shoot from the hip I often loose. There is no indication on the 60, 180 min charts of any top. The swiftness of the equity decline caught a lot of people by surprise (not just traders but institutions and I would guess the real liquidation is just beginning (or at least it is a realistic possibility). In that case we could keep caving in and there would be more flight to quality.
We should see some support on the 10 YR yield @ 4.7 - 4.71. I would be a cautious seller of 30's above 110 '08. Other than the flight to quality bid, these seem a bit tired. el surdo
the Fed. can always enter the credit markets and sop up the blood....Citi and Morgan are Benny Boy's proxies
I was really puzzled by your post as to me it was quite obvious that a top was in (albeit temporary), especially after Friday's activity. In any event, it was certainly a nice 32 tick range to the downside to take advantage of since I saw the the 60 minute topping out on Friday. I think our definitions and time frames are different, although you did mention the 60 minute chart. This has been an incredible market to take advantage of this month and last month.