Hearing above 140 and below 110 tomorrow will move us and be an event, anything else is a non-event, of course things are always dependent upon real money and mortgage flows in the long end. Around 110 seems to be the consensus of a few large hedge funds while economists are around 120.
with an election near and the Republicans having gender problems.... me thinks they gun the number higher
The TOP looks in to me, but no one wants to step in front of the numbers tomorrow, unless they have a casino mentality. Which some do... But then again. Stocks look like they are ready to go lower. So a negative reaction to tomorrows numbers should coincide with a small correction in stocks.
No one is whispering 300,000 . . . . . highest I have heard is Morgan Stanley around 150,000. I think I might take out a lotto ticket tomorrow on the high side, possibly the Nov 107 puts in the 10yr options.
between now and the election, the screwy gov. statistics are likely to become a laugh............ the rise in the S&P despite Fed. hawk talk is a mysterious feature given this is October after all...and GDP is forecast to have a 1 handle in Q4 surely no one or thing is screwing around with S&P futures, I mean who would dare?
Screwing around with the futures market? Nah they're too busy hitting on teenage girls! I like your lotto ticket Mcurto
So when is the final drawing McCurto for the lotto ticket. In a couple of months? Looks to me that Bonds are done.
I don't trade options, but out of curiosity, I took a look at the 107 Nov 10 year put between 0700 and 0730 prior to the spike. I could have got 4/64. Right now, 0950 they are trading at 10/64. Not bad at all, but so far not a lottery ticket.
2 to 1 payout enough for me. I was just looking for a one day play, if not I would have sold end of today for maybe 2 or 3 ticks. About 5000 4's traded I think, maybe a bit less.
I tried shorting some TLT but IB says "There is insufficient TLT available for short sale." Anybody know how often this happens? I know that shorting the big ETFs is normally quite easy.