Bond rally nearing an end?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by gharghur2, Jan 18, 2006.

  1. Surdo

    Surdo

    That's TC's chart!

    :D
     
    #1831     Sep 27, 2006
  2. mcurto

    mcurto

    They think dealers are manipulating certain issues. I would imagine the 2yr note as of late. Who knows. This probably means nothing in the end.
     
    #1832     Sep 27, 2006
  3. It is It is!

    If the economy is weak and Crude is declining sharply there is no reason not to own Bonds, yes?

    Now, what if Crude reverses and starts rising sharply again, mass exit?
     
    #1833     Sep 27, 2006
  4. mcurto

    mcurto

    We were under pressure again today but managed to push higher so far tonight. Mortgages continue the monster rollover from their Dec 109 and 110 calls into the March 110 and 111 calls, all told about 50,000 at each strike this week. PIMCO is now selling the March 106-111 strangle in the 10yr options for 43 ticks, this could end up being about 150,000 short over the next few months. We have had our volatility bid as we traded to the upside with the convexity buying (but now vol is drifting back toward 4% in the 10yr). Now we are almost back to the 4.65% 10yr cash yield level where it all started. PCE tomorrow should be telling of whether this curve can flatten anymore past -10 basis points.
     
    #1834     Sep 28, 2006
  5. McCurto

    PIMCO's going two strikes above and below on the strangle suggests they are not looking for too much either way until after November. Yes?

    Looks like a reasonable hedge, while adding income, considering what they hold. And, if the puts go against them, I'm sure they will just roll to a lower strike.

    THX
     
    #1835     Sep 28, 2006
  6. Yes, I've seen that chart before.

    Interesting right ...
     
    #1837     Sep 29, 2006
  7. Il Principe

    Il Principe Guest

    I'm no chartist, but I'd say we've got some resistance at 108^12 in the ZN.
     
    #1838     Oct 3, 2006
  8. I'd say you are correct!
     
    #1839     Oct 3, 2006
  9. Surdo

    Surdo

    #1840     Oct 4, 2006