Bond rally nearing an end?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by gharghur2, Jan 18, 2006.

  1. Il Principe

    Il Principe Guest


    Please elaborate on your reasoning here. Your quote reads that equities merely faded the bullish Crude/Israeli information, which is frustrating, but, at times, a reality.
     
    #1581     Jul 22, 2006
  2. Isn't this a options expiration day phenomena ?



     
    #1582     Jul 22, 2006
  3. sure it's options related, and since you can short an index on downticks, you get a free ride on the arb. between the components and the index.....

    It has to be coordinated between large hedge players or the MOC orders would screw things up if someone were to get out of line and move the index off the even strike.........

    so they short the 130 put and call knowing way ahead of time that the index will sit at 130.00 at the close....

    it's like using tomorrow's sports page to bet on today's races........

    even when it's not an expiration Friday, players will build short positions on stocks that make up a small index and then all at once, short sell the index with abandon, forcing the index manager to dump the stox that make up the index into a thin bid and then it feeds on itself.....

    sour grapes I know, but it still pisses me
     
    #1583     Jul 22, 2006
  4. To All,

    Have you changed your position since BB's testimony last week?

    Luc
     
    #1584     Jul 25, 2006
  5. Surdo

    Surdo

    Yes.
     
    #1585     Jul 25, 2006
  6. I kept my short position because I didn't think that the stock market correction could continue much longer. Also, the oil market wasn't buying the slow growth story.

    Having deep-in-the money options, I can afford patience.
     
    #1586     Jul 25, 2006
  7. hey mcurto,
    what's the action down in the pits?
    The volumes and vols seems to have dropped the last few days.

    also i'm thinking about changing
    my broker and got a great offer from Fimat. Can you tell me anything about how good there desk is down there. Probably doing alot of ratios and spreads on tens.


    thanx
    shivastar
     
    #1587     Jul 25, 2006
  8. Are you short or long now? What's your target?

    Thanks,
    Luc
     
    #1588     Jul 25, 2006
  9. Surdo

    Surdo

    I have a long Bias.
     
    #1589     Jul 25, 2006
  10. mcurto

    mcurto

    Scalping longs nice today but wouldn't get too comfortable in a position. The shorts can't quite throw in the towel with PCE on their side for next week. The Fed has raised forecasts on PCE for the rest of the year and remember it is already at "elevated" levels for them. Also maybe a chance the housing market isn't slowing as much as expected (ya it did for the past month or two, but solid number today and New Home Sales tomorrow). The 5yr note got hit twice today with orders over 10,000 lots, one of them 11,250 sold at 103-27 and the second one 12,500 sold at 103-30. Locals did okay on the first one and got F***ED on the second one, half tick and full tick loser. Maybe we can get a surprise upside print in GDP as well. Looking at 5yr yields back to 2000 or so these are multi-year highs, so still plenty of time to get long on a long-term basis.
     
    #1590     Jul 26, 2006