10-YEAR TREASURY NOTE (^TNX): it is expected that this bond will move toward 4.70 or 47.0 as index soon. it has entered in accumulation phase as indicated in the attached figures. if the support at 4.7 was broken then we might see major burst toward 3.9 range. The reasons are many but major ones are the oil prices week dollar current Middle East and due to other geopolitical issues. Best luck Albrady Saudi Arabia please follow this link for charts. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=72080&perpage=6&pagenumber=4
You don't think that it will continue along the Poly. lines shown on your chart (at http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1130290), and that it will suddenly and radically deviate from them instead? Strange...
لا يفهم هو على الأرجح العربية.
mcurto, What is your take on activity today? The strengthening and break past 107 15 forces me to consider that my short is premature. Any comments on the positioning prior to the 0730 reports tomorrow?
moumkin. How did you get the right letters to show? When I try, I see different letters than the ones I typed. What's the trick?
Thanks Steve for the blog, and of course the ongoing analysis... Ya, the long end sure is expensive, and I completely agree that given the risks of inflation you're not getting much bang for the buck... The market is trying to balance inflation risk with a longer term (2nd half) outlook for the economy, I think the recent geopolitical stuff is just fluff, it won't be enough to sustain a longer rally... Iraq 1, Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq 2, all are reasons to get excited but any sustained upmove must be more secular... I almost feel like buying overnight repos and rolling them, ya no cap gains but I feel they'd be pretty limited at this point...
PIMCO talking again. This time its Gross saying he expects the 10-year to be 10 BP's lower, and that the short end is the "place to be".