Ya, apparently the Fed gauges invertedness between the FF and 10s, so we're pretty inverted using the June implied rate... The TUT spread is still about 8 basis points positive, but that's coz even the 2 year is joining the ride, that will of course change if inflation numbers come in high...
you mean don't fight the TOKYO fed.... recall that JCB mentioned a few weeks back that it was considering a cut off of free money which sent shock waves through credit markets...the JCB quickly backed off as soon as Bernanke looked up their phone number....... the trade weighted dollar against Asian baskets has broken to new lows...
With Europe and Japan central banks hinting at future tightening, matters just get more muddled and complicated as to where US bonds should be headed... I'm always sceptical of Jpn, is this finally the time when they break outta their decade long slump...
who the hell needs the US Fed anyway.... credit can be created out of thin air as it stands and sold like apples on the corner.... there seems to be no method to drain credit in an orderly fashion and maintain relationships between asset classes.... recall that a few weeks ago, EVERYTHING tanked.... gold, dollar, bonds, S&P, housing, EM debt, etc.... that's the message... there's only a gas pedal...no brakes and no clutch....
Thank you guys for ALL the replies. I learn much from all of you and hope my contributions also help some you in some way. Will get back later during the week, when I have a better idea of how to present my ideas and further questions. Cheers !!
Equities sold off heavy today, anybody think there may be some rebalancing into bonds? Treasuriies seemed to shrug off the news, the declines weren't nearly as bad...
OK, nobody laugh now, but I am still long the 10 yr futures and looking to add on dips. I am looking at high 103's as a stop out point still.
I'm still long too. Why? Because my system says to be. I short from 1/27 until I went long on 5/26. I am also short stocks, since 11/18. I believe we might have a stock market crash here and a flight to liquidity (10 year bonds). But my beliefs don't affect my quant system.