Had a thought. If we're right, all rates should pull back over the next several weeks to reflect a new consensus ?
I find it interesting that ZN charts of 15 minutes or less were weakening just before the announcement. I see this kind of thing many times before major news. Either way-- up or down. It's almost as if some of the day traders are "in the know" and are positioning just ahead of news. Does anyone else notice this phenomenom ever? Edit: I didn't trade it as I am mostly longer term except for some FX futures and some ES stuff. Thus , I held my long position.
This phenomenon is usually traders stepping aside as opposed to new and crucial information being integrated into prices.
LOL. I'm laughing at myself for what I am about to answer because I'll probably sound like a politician: I noticed that during the hour before an important annoucement, traders tend to step aside (and information is <i>withdrawn</i> from price fluctuations) but just a minute before the annoucement, front-runners start rushing in. GG and I in disagreement? Come on...