Bond rally nearing an end?

Discussion in 'Financial Futures' started by gharghur2, Jan 18, 2006.

  1. It appears from my analysis that the Bond market started a cyclical bear market in the summer of 2005. Interest rates have been a supercycle bear market in October 1981 when the 30-year bond rate peaked at 15 1/4 %. That's 24 years of declining rates!

    In the summer of 2005, interest rates started impulsing upward as noted in the chart below. Rates should find support at about 4.45% which is about 115.75 on the long bond. We spiked up the momentarily this morning. That could have been it! Lets see how this unfolds. But I'd have to state Bonds look very bearish!

    Wrote a report over the weekend: Jan 16th
  2. It looks like the Bond rally may be over, and Yield today poked its head above the 8 dma @ 4.555%. A further push above 4.6%, the the 34 dma would convince me Yields are ready to move higher. Posted a chart:

    I'm bearish on Bonds!
  3. landboy


    Ya, was nice while it lasted...

    I"m remembering back to mid-2003 when the fed lowered unexpectedly, sparked a sell off that lasted a month, let's see what he has to say...
  4. It looks like cRUDE is going to keep the pressure on throughout the year. Not sure the FED even has a choice.
  5. Full point break today and a push over the 34 dma...all she wrote.
  6. Hi five!
  7. gharghur2,

    Sorry, but would you kindly elaborate?

  8. Hi John,

    The bull market in bonds ended in June 2005. The first leg down, or first leg up in the yield new bull market (which is how I'm following it) topped in August at a yield of 4.6 %.

    This first advance corrected into early September. Then another wave up transpired into the early November highs to around 4.8+%.

    Since then, yields have been correcting in what I have labeled another wave 2. The recent low in yields (high in bonds 115.50) was the end of the correction and yields are heading higher in an overall bull market.

    Maybe this chart will help:
  9. gharghur2,


    So, in terms of today's activity, I'm curious to know if you see a re-test of the low of 112-15, as you called for a 1 point down move?

    #10     Jan 26, 2006