Bond market predictions

Discussion in 'Trading' started by brasco, Jun 29, 2006.

  1. brasco


    With today's hike behind us, I'm curious to get some opinions on a couple of aspects of where treasuries are headed.

    - Long Yields- Up or down?- Based on the fact that funds futures are still pricing in ~70% chance of an August hike, the obvious answer seems to say that the short end will drag the long end up. But, will the market interpret the fed's diligence regarding inflation as a signal to hop in? Alternatively, if the Fed doesn't hike, do inflation fears drive the long end higher, or does the long end begin to anticipate rate cuts?

    My guess is higher longer term yields/mortgage rates, as the long end is dragged to 5.4 or so by August.

    Curve shape-Steepen or flatten- Similar to above.

    I'm guessing we flatten through August. We could see some steepening resulting from long yields getting nervous from CPI numbers, which have an upward bias this month (it's calc'd on a rolling average and some of the smaller results are falling off this month).

    Vols- Up/Down. No clue here. I'm guessing, based on the fact that we're near generational lows, that vols have nowhere to go but up. Or, does the Fed's transparency keep them low?