I just looked at the yield curve and it looks like we wont have a recession. The bond market has spoken.
Could you explain your reasoning? 4.793% on 2ys vs 4.6% on 10ys doesn't look too great to me http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
He might have been looking at a corporate or municipal curve. Treasuries have much more derivatives-related buying that might be "artificially" inflating values and distorting the shape of its curve.
Isn't there a model that has some predictive value regarding the spread between different maturities and the probability of a recession? I thought someone had posted something like that on this site.