Bond Market As Leading Indicator?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Jabez1947, Jan 19, 2002.

  1. Is anyone using the Bond Market as a leading indicator or directional indicator? For example are you using the 30 year treasury's or 10 year treasuray or something else? Or is anyone is using anything from the CBOT as a leading indicator of trading stocks on the NAS or NYSE.

    If you are, how are you using it and what are the symbols you follow. :confused:


  2. Jabez-
    every other day I check to check on Rating's upgrades/downgrades...a very succesful friend of mine who runs a hedge fund once told me to "always watch the bonds"..he has given me some really good heads up on a few bankrupts waiting to happen...
  3. Uptik....That's not the information I was looking for, but I think that checking Moody's is a great idea. Thanks for the info and the link. I will put it to use next week.
  4. Intrest rates are important during economic reports. Example the market has sold off for a week and rates are falling bond prices rising all this happening because a bad GDP report. Next week employment numbers come out better then expted the fear is gone so bonds sell off stocks start rising. What this all means a short term recovery look to trade financial sensitive stocks. put this all in reverse for shorting. What yields and stock prices tell you is the health of the market. This all takes a lot of time to learn
    pay attention to cnbc 8:30 during economic reports. But to use a easier indicator watch the TRIN and TICK.
  5. Trade555...Thanks, I have been following the TRIN, TICK and S&P Futures for about 2 years now and have been using them as my main leading indicators. I am looking for something else to maybe increase my vision of upcoming market direction.
  6. Advance and decline line is another good indicator it usually leads the market. Example if the futures look like there going to break usually the advancers lead the market and follow through. If the market is going to be choppy you could see the AD line doesn't move but the futures beak and fail. Just watch the AD line and the futures how they act together. If the market is strong so should be the advancers. Reverse for the short side. But most importantly in this market when the AD is flat you have a good idea the market is going to be choppy.
  7. I cannot find a symbol for the advance/decline line in Qcharts. Does anybody know if they have one?
  8. PitBull


    Try the TICK.
  9. You could also use Advancing issues, declining issues and Unchanged issues and lean to gauge the strength manually.
  10. Trade555...What is the symbol to follow the AD line. I am currently using QCharts and could not find it in their help section.


    #10     Jan 20, 2002