I saw your post. I have no opinion of it since it talks about things that happened almost twenty years ago. I was in the TBill pit in those days, and I can tell you that Bonds/TNotes/TBills today are nothing like they were then. Also, I am not an interest rate trader, but I am learning, so I just stand and listen. I also think statements like "IF YOU ARE NOT LONG YOU ARE WRONG" are made, at best, by amateurs. nitro
should be an interesting morning for the bonds. 10-yr is stalled out at the 50 DMA for about 5 sessions now, stoch is way oversold yet the trend is down- already down '200 in overnite trade.. Which way will she break? thoughts? triple
Its interesting the bond boys ran the mkt down to 116'04 to clear out the stops ! I think there is quite a bit of support below the mkt at 116 level, looking for a place to go long.
Interestingly enough the global interest rate markets seems to be even more correlated now than they normally are, which is very highly indeed. In addition to the U.S. yield curve getting absolutely smoked in here, the JGB's (Japanese Govie Bonds) are getting crushed like there's no tomorrow. The yields on the JGB's have risen damn near 75 basis points with hardly a hiccup to a multi-year high. Three weeks ago they were the short of Century. Now they're merely the short of the decade. Euro denominated bonds are backing up quite a bit as well. And the ECB is going to have to ease up in here somewhere before they strangle Germany. This equals more bad news for bond bulls. I think that popping sound you just heard was the Global Bond Bubble bursting. This is trouble for the Real Estate market writ large! We shall see. Happy 4th! Dr.Zhivodka
If only it were so simple. Sometimes bonds will react immediately and violently to a move in bunds. Othertimes, they seem to ignore the bund movement. No doubt there is a great degree of correlation, but I have watched this and there are definately times when the bond/bund traders are each of their own mind. Sometimes watching the bonds not react to the bunds can give one a clue as to where the market is going. At other times, the lack of reaction is a matter of delay, and when the reaction comes it comes quite violently. Pull up a bond/bund chart from Wednesday night just around the open (2:00 am EST) and, looking at a 1 minute chart, you'll see that although each of the bonds/bunds/notes sold off, there was not perfect unison. One thing's for sure, though, the bond/bund/note combo often provides a far more interesting overnight ride than do the e-minis; if you've got the stomach for them. E-mini traders be forewarned; moves come fast and strong, and there are times where pullbacks are non-existant.
where do you get bund charts ? <E-mini traders be forewarned; moves come fast and strong, and there are times where pullbacks are non-existant.>