Neckline of this h&s pattern in about 118, the top of the head is 123. Projection of pattern is 113. A move like that may or may not happen. Who knows? You can count on some counter moves along the way. My plan is to use a trailing stop strategy to minimize loss of accumulated profits, or a hedging strategy. As of now I still have not moved my initial stop. I will however make a decision before the end of the trading session.
After a quiet start to the week, great ranges and numerous trading opportunities finished off the week. In the securities markets, the players were caught long on Wednesday which resulted in a 3-day correction. We have seen some good profit taking. Open interest has decreased across the board. The Bonds have corrected 4 3/4 points down to 11608 from the Wednesday high of 12031. From the contract high of 12303, there has been an almost 7-point correction. I have a hard time remaining bearish after a correction like this. The EDH4 has corrected 32.5 ticks from the contract high of 9901.5 down to 9866. The EDM4 traded down to a low of 9842.5 from it high of 9845, a 42.5 tick correction. I have been bearish for quite a few days, but I am not bearish down here. Inside Range Day in the Short-end today. That is small bullish be it one day, or possibly more. In a Primary Bull Market do you buy 40 tick corrections or do you sell them? Look for a bounce, especially in the USU and TYU. Both these markets have left gaps above. The USU gap is from 11809-11811 and the TYU gap is from 11801-11805. In the USU, there is a Head and Shoulders Top with an up sloping neckline that should come into play around the gap. If this is a true H & S Formation, there should be some sort of a return to the neckline. The problem I see with this H & S Top, is the right shoulder should be on low volume. This right shoulder is not on low volume.
Low volume or high volume, it really doesnât matter. The fact is there is a H&S topping pattern on the daily chart which has some significance. The H&S pattern project a drop to 113. That drop to 113 probably will not happen quickly. I expect some sideways action and even some countertrend rallies. As long as the market is below 118, the direction is down.
I take it, you're now long Sept Bonds with a close this Friday at 116'21? Next leg up this fall to 145 on bonds would predict a recession in the US. What are you basing this analysis on, TA or cyclical work etc?
It is time for a bounce. Possible H & S Top. All true H & S have a return to the neckline. Time will tell. Did the shorts cover on Friday or do you run this BIG winner looking for the HOME RUN down to 113 objective? Where's the shorts stop if the market bounces? Making money easy. KEEPING IT IS THE GAME.
No covering here. Still short after the break below 118. Stop on half my position moved to 117 to lock in profit, remaining half left at break even.
I'm not covering here either looking for another leg down. I already covered half my position. Stop still above 118.
Sept bonds closes strong and have a positive feel on today, Monday. Dropping profi-taking trailing stop to just above Monday's and Friday's highs.
Although I trade tnotes, same chart pattern. I probably went short much later than most of you, short from near Wednesday close. Got out 1/2 position Friday. For the rest I am moving my stop to break even, in USU it would be 118'28. I think its good to give this mkt some room. If it closes back above 118, not sure what to make of the head n' shoulders break?