Bond Futures explode on the Philly Fed number. Futures went from being around the lows of the day to making a new high for the day. Looks like a reversal day! Anybody trading bonds?
I have been all over this move, looking for 123-124 to take profits. 11705 is a good area to re-establish longs for a minor squeeze back up. We are range bound until Sept when we start our next leg up to 145-150. Read my material. I traded bonds live for 6 years and off the floor for 10. It is the best securities trade going.
BONDS: All time low yields Page 3 05-14-03 07:44 PM BONDS FEEL LUCKY PUNK The Answer, My friend and colleague did a case study of the 1984 (this should be 1985 my mistake I was guessing) Bond trade that I speak of here. The formation that we have right now, is the same chart formation we had 19 years ago in the Bond Market. In 1984, we first had a false breakout to the upside followed by a 6 point dump. In February/March 2003, the high of the breakout from a symmetrical triangle was 11526. On April 7, 2003 the low of the break in the June Bond was 109.25 (6 points). Everyone and their brother was bearish. Reviewing the case study of 1984 and being bullish was a beautiful thing. Myself and my mate were in our own camp. The objective for this move is a 135-136 handle. The last 7-10 points will come fast and hard. I would look to take profits at the 123-124 level. Look to buy back with both hands a 38.2%-50% correction from the 10925 lows to the high of this move, hopefully 12320. They laughed at me 19 years ago. Now the players listen to a 47 year old man. The T-Bond is a great trade dominated by the computer about 4 to 1 computer to pit. You can actually buy the lows or sell the highs of moves on the computer and not have to give up a tick to get in and a tick to get out to the bloody locals. Good luck. Keep the faith. IF YOU ARE NOT LONG YOU ARE WRONG. __________________ Patience and Discipline I am now looking for 145-150 by spring 2004
Okay I'm calling my shot. It looks like the head of a head and shoulders pattern has formed in Sept Bonds. The left shoulder and the head has formed. The neckline would be the 118 area. So I'm looking for a bounce up from this 118 area and then the right shoulder will be formed for the larger scale selloff in the Sept Bonds contract. Any comments?
bonds rally huge-this cut may not be the last. the kraut economy is already starting to deflate. point man may have the target right. japs deflate, krauts deflate, it will be tougher to win this war.
Okay the above statement was made early in the day. I still feel that this rally will stop short of contract highs and create a double top or a head and shoulders topping pattern.